winter

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Tracking a possible Snow Threat..

4:00pm 02/13/16

Good Saturday Afternoon! I’m going to talk through with you about what we’re expecting for the next couple of days. First off, friends and neighbors have been asking me about this snow system expected to impact the area, well.. here are my thoughts

Sunday afternoon into Monday snow will swivel from northwest to southeast, along with that, a strengthening southern flow of warmer saturated air , and looks likely to bring some heavy snow for most of the bluegrass. This particular parameter shows the potential lifting, this system has. Notice the “tounge” is coming in from the south, which indicates that there is energy to work with in the atmosphere, just enough to cause heavy banding of snow.

Theta-E Nam Monday morning

NAM 12X 850mb Theta-E, College of DuPage Wx

 

Now I’m going to give you a run through on the timing of this .

Newest runs suggest the timing of the snow moves in Northwest to Southeast from 7-10 am. This is from the NAM.. Notice by Sunday evening, the entire state is covered with snow, and it will be a battle between the warmer and colder air to determine whether or not several areas will see mixing.

11AM Sunday snow

Simulated Reflectivity, precip types, pivotalweather.com

 

7pm Sunday snow.jpg

NAM Simulated Reflectivity Precip Types, pivotalweather.com

 

 

The NAM is also showing interesting snowfall totals across the region.

Nam Snowfall output

NAM total snow accumulation, pivotalweather.com

 

With that being said, here are my first thoughts on the snow Sunday through Monday.

preliminary snow thoughts

This could very well change, check back with me later tonight to see if my thoughts stay the same!

Snow Arrives, Last Shot at Snow.

9:40 am 01/22

Good Friday morning, the snow has arrived and is falling across much of the state. As the snow presses in northbound , its takin time moistening up the atmosphere, northern zones will see the lower totals because the air is relatively “crisper” the places with the most saturated air are areas across southern and central Kentucky, which means the bigger flakes right now are south of I-64. Much of the precip there has already shifted to snow, and with that in mind, higher snow totals can be anticipated around the Bowling Green area. Here is my Last and Final shot at snow for this winter storm.

bwg_None_anim.gif last shot at snow.jpg

Increasing High Impact Snow Storm

11:55 a 01/21

Models continue to show crippling snow totals statewide, so here is my latest shot at snow, Anywhere ranging from from 6″-14+”  expected across the state. My Latest shot at snow shows  a general 8″-12″ expected across central Kentucky. (Note: I’m being conservative with these numbers) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the sate. Prepare for significant crippling snows across the region.

winter storm warning ff last shot at snow

Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday and the School Watch Meter

10:00 PM 01/18

It’s a very brisk MLK Jr Day, highs only made it into the upper teens, the daytime high in Lexington was 19 degrees, barely hit 20, however windchills hovered anywhere around 0 to 5 degrees this afternoon. We’re stuck with this cold tomorrow as well as highs are only expected to reach the low 20s.

Now on to Wednesday, a snow moves in Wednesday morning, and at this point it is likely that several spots could see a couple of inches,  especially for those across southern Kentucky .  Snowfall ratios will be near 8:1, thanks to a very cold ground set by this Arctic cold, and temperatures that morning will be in the upper teens and lower 20s. Here is my first shot at snow. First Shot at snow.jpg

 

Now a Snowday comes into question, and as a former Scott County student, I always loved to see snow in the forecast, because that meant a possible delay or closing.School teachers and staff, I know the ‘talk of the town ‘ will be Wednesday morning’s snow. So here’s just a run-down of what i’m seeing

  1. Snow arrives around 5-8 am Wednesday morning, roads will remain will below freezing, any snow that falls will stick.
  2. There may be some heavy periods of snow at times which could limit visibility.
  3. Though we aren’t getting the MOST  out of this, regardless,  accumulating snow is conducive to deteriorating road conditions,
  4. Most School systems either Delay or Close school in these type of events, but it’s not my call, its the Superintendent’s.
  5. I will have gain confidence on whether or not there’s a school closing tomorrow, so check back with me.
So for that, I’m giving Scott County Students a MODERATE  chance for a Snowday on Wednesday.
Wednesday School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Wednesday’s Winter Storm Chance. #KYWX

Posted at 8:40 PM March 2, 2015 by Darius Mack

Good evening gang, tis the season, or is it? It’s less than 20 days till we see the Spring equinox, and also less than a week before Daylight Savings Time. By this time of year we should see sunny skies and highs in the 50s. That’s not the case this winter season, Winter has made its late arrival, and this delayed schedule is going into the start of March. I want to do a quick run down on whats going to happen here in the next 48 hours.

First, a mild system will zoom through the state Tuesday morning, Temps may reach 60 degrees in most spots. It looks to be a soaky event, a Flood Watch is in place for our area through Wednesday afternoon. Two inches or more of rain is expected.  As well, we also have a Winter Storm Watch that has the likelihood to upgrade to a Warning.

Winter storm watches

And here’s why…

Models suggest the rain makes it transition to sleet and snow Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Futurerad wednesday eveningFuturerad wednesday evening 2

One particular model is putting out some hefty amounts, however since this is a model, i’m not taking this word for word. Look at the brighter colors, those are indicating roughly 10-12″ of snow, now that’s not my forecast, but i’m showing you the potential this system has.

NAM snow model

Here are my First thoughts, i will make some modifications tomorrow, stay tuned for more updates!

snowfall map 2

Tracking the Latest #KYWX

Posted at 8:10 PM February 20,2015 By Darius Mack

bwg_None_anim (7)

Good evening gang, This has been an historical week for many, first the double digit snows, then followed by record breaking cold, and then we track several rounds of winter with that. Right now i’m watching the Winter Storm Threat this hour. Beginning as snow for western Kentucky, may transition to freezing rain in sleet in the next several hours. The timing on this is a little earlier, the earliest we can expect this snow is around 10pm tonight. Temps statewide are sitting in the 20s, a southern flow moves in, which means we got a hefty moisture bank with this particular system, by tomorrow afternoon some may see temps in the low 30s, and southern zones by see temps in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Depending on where you live, and the temperature, will be the cutting edge on who gets what. Which is why I’ve made my latest thoughts about this Winter Storm. Some areas may get more Ice than others, and some areas may get more snow than others. Keep checking with Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky’s Facebook page , or my twitter page @dariusmackwx for the latest updates!

Winter Storm Thoughts

Winter Storm Thoughts #KYWX

Posted at 12:15 PM February 20,2015 by Darius Mack

Good Afternoon everyone, i’m going to be brief and give you just an overview of whats going on.

– A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for most of the viewing audience, anyone under this warning can expect significant ice and snow accumulations.

winter storm alert

– A Southwest  flow of air will bring moisture along with it, it may first come in the form of snow then transitions to sleet and freezing rain, some areas may see more snow than freezing rain and some areas may see more freeing rain than snow.

-The time stamp in which is moves in looks to be around 12-2am Saturday for central Kentucky.

-Significant impacts are likely for the entire state of Kentucky.

-It does impact most of your Saturday

Below are my latest thoughts, now there is a lot of room for error in this graphic, but I will try my best to keep you up to date with whats going on.

Winter Storm Thoughts