weather

Tracking Severe Storms This Weekend

Good Saturday morning , I hope everyone is enjoying the nice weather we had thus far. Changes are coming in the short term as I’m seeing a severe weather risk on your Saturday, and not only that the heat and humidity ramps up as highs will reach the low 80s, which make it ripe for thunderstorm development. Not to mention, dewpoints will be in the 70s which is also promotes the ‘juicing’ of these thunderstorms. With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced risk over much of the Ohio valley region.

SPC outlook1.jpg

 

Tomorrow morning things are relatively quiet, but things are anticipated to pick up during the heating of the day. Storms will begin to build along a west to east corridor, almost acting like a conveyor belt, these storms will track through central Kentucky. I would say around 12PM-3PM are the times to keep checking your radar apps… What you are seeing is one of the high resolution models called the HRRR  that updates by the hour. It shows us a guidance on what we can expect during the day,  by the hour.

HRRR-Saturday

 

All in all, some will get hit with storms at some point of time, while others may not, but eventually everyone will likely see storms tomorrow. These storms will have alot of water, and will cause some localized flood threats which is why the Flood threat is set at a moderate.  The main threats are damaging wind, hail, and while the tornado threat isn’t quite high, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Threat Index 2

 

I’ll keep you posted!

Darius,

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

8:30P 02/01

It’s been an exceptionally pleasant weekend, today also wasn’t too bad despite the morning showers. If you haven’t been outside already, you’ve wasted your time, that being said. I’m watching potent weather arriving here tomorrow.

SPC outlook 2(2)

SPC Preliminary Severe Weather Threat, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky

 

 

Last update, you remember me touching base on this, and it’s likely that tomorrow winds and heavy rain will rough us up a bit. The Storm Prediction Center highlights most the Mississippi valley under some type of risk for severe weather tomorrow. The city of Lexington is under a Slight risk of severe weather, the cities of Bowling Green and Louisville are under an Enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary threat is damaging winds, and you can’t rule out the chance for possible spin up tornadoes.

ECWMWF highs

ECMWF MAX-TEMPS, WxBell

 

Not to mention, tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 60s to possibly even 70.

There is no doubt about the severe weather potential that we have:

 

  1. We have a convergence of warmth surging in from the southwest.
  2. Significant daytime heating for this time of year, (temps around 65 degrees).
  3. Increasing surface temps will also increase lifting in the air.
  4. Behind that, cooler air on tap.
HiRes-Model-run

NAM 4KM Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

The WxBell HiRes Nam shows that some showers may start as early as 7 or 8 am, that won’t be the thing to worry about. The bigger threat arrives around 5-7pm, storms will push in from the southwest and track towards the north- east. Gusts are expected to be around 40-50+mph.

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, and feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx where I will be updating you on the latest weather situations

Just How Warm are we going to get?

11:15 AM  01/29 Good Friday morning! I’m going to be brief because I have to get back to my homework, I’m posting about this because I feel like its worth sharing. Starting  tomorrow and into early next week a dramatic spike in temperatures are expected.

The EURO,( which is really good on picking up temp trends) is showing some extreme warmth set up for Kentucky, especially for this time of year.

Saturday: The Euro is putting highs in the mid 50s for the area, not to mention we’ll have pleasant conditions as well..

euro highs

ECMWF Surface Temps Saturday, WxBell

Sunday and Monday highs will stay in the 50s, rain showers arrive Sunday evening, and exit by Monday afternoon.

 

Now on to  Tuesday. Tuesday evening temps could be well into the 60s. The Euro shows a high-budget temperature wise, putting highs in the upper 60s near 70..

Tuesday highs euro

ECMWF Surface Temps Tuesday, WxBell

 

BUT.. The Canadian and GFS are putting highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. quite opposed to the upper 60s. I think there’s a good shot at us reaching the mid 60s.

However, one thing they all agree with is a system bringing a whole lot of wind and rain late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Followed by a  sharp crash in temps, by Wednesday afternoon temps could be in the low 30s, and thing is, we’re not done yet.

A push of Arctic air continues to move through the Midwest, and  there is a possibility that next Friday’s highs could be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

gfs Vort Friday

GFS 500 VORT, WxBell.

 

I’ll keep you posted, enjoy your weekend! 🙂

Keep your Eye on the Skies Today. #ffcky #kywx

10:20 AM 07/13/15

Posted by Darius Mack
Good Morning! First things first, i’m talking severe weather potential. Yesterday evening I brought you the news that severe weather is likely today, the SPC once placed us under a Moderate risk, there has been some modifications, and the updated risk downgrades to an Enhanced risk, really not much of a downgrade, as an Enhanced risk for severe weather is still synonymous with widespread storms capable of producing damaging wind, hail, and possibly tornadoes. The primary concern should be damaging winds and localized flooding.

Spc outlook 4

Round 1: Models place a pronounced bowing complex right over the central part of the state, and if i’m not mistaken this looks like a derecho, which is characterized by intense straight-line winds. The best timing would be around 2-6 pm, I think an outflow boundary may generate some daytime storms ahead of the main line.

HRR model run Monday

Round 2 comes in later tonight…

HRRR model run 2 Monday

I’ll Keep you posted, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky has declared SEVERE WEATHER MODE which mean our team will work around the clock to make sure you are out of danger’s way.

Wednesday’s Winter Storm Chance. #KYWX

Posted at 8:40 PM March 2, 2015 by Darius Mack

Good evening gang, tis the season, or is it? It’s less than 20 days till we see the Spring equinox, and also less than a week before Daylight Savings Time. By this time of year we should see sunny skies and highs in the 50s. That’s not the case this winter season, Winter has made its late arrival, and this delayed schedule is going into the start of March. I want to do a quick run down on whats going to happen here in the next 48 hours.

First, a mild system will zoom through the state Tuesday morning, Temps may reach 60 degrees in most spots. It looks to be a soaky event, a Flood Watch is in place for our area through Wednesday afternoon. Two inches or more of rain is expected.  As well, we also have a Winter Storm Watch that has the likelihood to upgrade to a Warning.

Winter storm watches

And here’s why…

Models suggest the rain makes it transition to sleet and snow Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Futurerad wednesday eveningFuturerad wednesday evening 2

One particular model is putting out some hefty amounts, however since this is a model, i’m not taking this word for word. Look at the brighter colors, those are indicating roughly 10-12″ of snow, now that’s not my forecast, but i’m showing you the potential this system has.

NAM snow model

Here are my First thoughts, i will make some modifications tomorrow, stay tuned for more updates!

snowfall map 2

Tracking the Latest #KYWX

Posted at 8:10 PM February 20,2015 By Darius Mack

bwg_None_anim (7)

Good evening gang, This has been an historical week for many, first the double digit snows, then followed by record breaking cold, and then we track several rounds of winter with that. Right now i’m watching the Winter Storm Threat this hour. Beginning as snow for western Kentucky, may transition to freezing rain in sleet in the next several hours. The timing on this is a little earlier, the earliest we can expect this snow is around 10pm tonight. Temps statewide are sitting in the 20s, a southern flow moves in, which means we got a hefty moisture bank with this particular system, by tomorrow afternoon some may see temps in the low 30s, and southern zones by see temps in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Depending on where you live, and the temperature, will be the cutting edge on who gets what. Which is why I’ve made my latest thoughts about this Winter Storm. Some areas may get more Ice than others, and some areas may get more snow than others. Keep checking with Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky’s Facebook page , or my twitter page @dariusmackwx for the latest updates!

Winter Storm Thoughts

Winter Storm Thoughts #KYWX

Posted at 12:15 PM February 20,2015 by Darius Mack

Good Afternoon everyone, i’m going to be brief and give you just an overview of whats going on.

– A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for most of the viewing audience, anyone under this warning can expect significant ice and snow accumulations.

winter storm alert

– A Southwest  flow of air will bring moisture along with it, it may first come in the form of snow then transitions to sleet and freezing rain, some areas may see more snow than freezing rain and some areas may see more freeing rain than snow.

-The time stamp in which is moves in looks to be around 12-2am Saturday for central Kentucky.

-Significant impacts are likely for the entire state of Kentucky.

-It does impact most of your Saturday

Below are my latest thoughts, now there is a lot of room for error in this graphic, but I will try my best to keep you up to date with whats going on.

Winter Storm Thoughts

Get Ready, Winter Still Hangs With Us. #KYWX

Posted at 11:25 AM February 19,2015 by Darius Mack

It’s quite a splendorous week for most students in central Kentucky. Many schools have been closed all week, and Fayette County Public Schools are among other districts that decided to call the whole week off! We are in a historical winter period, including for me, this is the first double digit snow i’ve ever seen in Kentucky in my lifetime .Now we are set for brutal cold weather on tap, followed by more snow chances?? I tell you, winter has not forgot about us, even if it did come on a delayed schedule.

WIND CHILL WARNINGS are in effect and are set to expire within the next 40 minutes, but that’s on top of a Wind Chill Advisory that won’t expire until 8AM Friday. Wind Chill values today will range anywhere from -20 to -30 degrees. Having prolonged exposure to this type of cold is very risky and dangerous. If you do have to be outside today, take frequent breaks indoors. If you don’t have to be outside, just don’t go outside. Temps right now are near subzero. Bowling Green is the “Hotspot” sitting at 8 degrees this hour. Make sure you check on your neighbors, and don’t leave your pets outside.

current temps

Now. I’m monitoring another Winter threat that may arrive late Friday night and impact your weekend. Latest model runs show a messy snowy and icy event. I do suspect a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Watch to be issued a little later in the day concerning Friday. Stick with me for the latest 🙂

Futurerad