storms

Father’s Day Storms

  • 1:10 AM 06/18/2017  By Darius Mack

Well if you’re like me, you’ve been taking advantage of this amazing weather for the past couple of days. Despite the heat and humidity today, it was a good evening to hang around and “chill” outside for a bit. However, I’m talking big changes coming later on your Father’s Day Sunday. You might not be able to play those whole 18 holes tomorrow however you may get a chance at putting a few holes if you’re out a little earlier in the day.  A cold front is expected to move from the northwest into the southeast, and will likely bring some high winds and heavy rain with it. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok has put out a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for all of the Bluegrass state.

SPC outlook Sunday

 

The timing is mainly in the afternoon, can’t really rule out a stray shower or storm chance earlier in the morning as dew points will already be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The GREATEST chance will come after about 2PM Sunday afternoon. That’s when you should anticipate more of a widespread weather event. According to NAM, the first round will move in around 2-4pm, and another round possibly late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

NAM-run-Sunday

Be sure to stay vigilant of any changing weather conditions, overall, I’m not anticipating a total severe weather outbreak, just stay vigilant as we could see several severe warned storms across the state.

Tracking Severe Storms This Weekend

Good Saturday morning , I hope everyone is enjoying the nice weather we had thus far. Changes are coming in the short term as I’m seeing a severe weather risk on your Saturday, and not only that the heat and humidity ramps up as highs will reach the low 80s, which make it ripe for thunderstorm development. Not to mention, dewpoints will be in the 70s which is also promotes the ‘juicing’ of these thunderstorms. With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced risk over much of the Ohio valley region.

SPC outlook1.jpg

 

Tomorrow morning things are relatively quiet, but things are anticipated to pick up during the heating of the day. Storms will begin to build along a west to east corridor, almost acting like a conveyor belt, these storms will track through central Kentucky. I would say around 12PM-3PM are the times to keep checking your radar apps… What you are seeing is one of the high resolution models called the HRRR  that updates by the hour. It shows us a guidance on what we can expect during the day,  by the hour.

HRRR-Saturday

 

All in all, some will get hit with storms at some point of time, while others may not, but eventually everyone will likely see storms tomorrow. These storms will have alot of water, and will cause some localized flood threats which is why the Flood threat is set at a moderate.  The main threats are damaging wind, hail, and while the tornado threat isn’t quite high, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Threat Index 2

 

I’ll keep you posted!

Darius,

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

8:30P 02/01

It’s been an exceptionally pleasant weekend, today also wasn’t too bad despite the morning showers. If you haven’t been outside already, you’ve wasted your time, that being said. I’m watching potent weather arriving here tomorrow.

SPC outlook 2(2)

SPC Preliminary Severe Weather Threat, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky

 

 

Last update, you remember me touching base on this, and it’s likely that tomorrow winds and heavy rain will rough us up a bit. The Storm Prediction Center highlights most the Mississippi valley under some type of risk for severe weather tomorrow. The city of Lexington is under a Slight risk of severe weather, the cities of Bowling Green and Louisville are under an Enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary threat is damaging winds, and you can’t rule out the chance for possible spin up tornadoes.

ECWMWF highs

ECMWF MAX-TEMPS, WxBell

 

Not to mention, tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 60s to possibly even 70.

There is no doubt about the severe weather potential that we have:

 

  1. We have a convergence of warmth surging in from the southwest.
  2. Significant daytime heating for this time of year, (temps around 65 degrees).
  3. Increasing surface temps will also increase lifting in the air.
  4. Behind that, cooler air on tap.
HiRes-Model-run

NAM 4KM Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

The WxBell HiRes Nam shows that some showers may start as early as 7 or 8 am, that won’t be the thing to worry about. The bigger threat arrives around 5-7pm, storms will push in from the southwest and track towards the north- east. Gusts are expected to be around 40-50+mph.

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, and feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx where I will be updating you on the latest weather situations

TRACKING MORE STORMS #kywx

10:35AM 07/14/14
A very busy pattern continues to track through our area today, this morning showers and storms are upon us and it’s all some much needed rain. MERCER county has picked up about 2.02” of rain, JESSAMINE county has picked up about 1.06” of rain, and MADISON county has picked up nearly 1.30” of rain in the past 8 hours. This stuff is non-severe and will remain non-severe this morning.

BUT…The Storm Prediction center is Oklahoma has extended the SLIGHT risk for severe weather to include the Ohio river valley. The reason for that is that there is an area of frontogenesis that will extend through Arkansas, Missouri ,and into western Kentucky and it won’t be widespread, but during the heating of the day and if the instability still holds, that’s conducive to producing just a few loud boomers this afternoon and into the evening hours. Greatest chance for Severe weather is places south of the I-64 corridor.

Storms won't be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Storms won’t be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s. For Lexington a high of 86°.

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE LATEST Risk,
The Key threats include:
-Damaging Winds
-Severe Hail

spc outlook

Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky will be providing you with the latest during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! I’ll see you guys later!

                                               -Darius

                                              @dariusmack_wx

NEW BLOG POST #KYWX

12:05 PM 06/07/2014

It’s just about hitting the lunchtime hour, and no signs of any storms right now across the area.
Latest Futurerad models are showing a line of gusty showers and storms moving in around 6-7PM.

The Storm Prediction Center has UPDATED the SLIGHT risk to include areas west of the I-65 corridor.

spc outlook
Tuesday morning I’m tracking something more potent and I’ll keep you posted on the latest.

futurerad Tue

See you guys later!

TRACKING SEVERE WEATHER

Hello! It’s been a while since I’ve posted on the blog, I hope you all have had a safe holiday weekend and I know some of you will be off tomorrow enjoying your super extended weekend. Well you know when I post something on here that means I’m talking about something BIG, and I’m not talking about Gov. Chris Christie, I’m talking about severe weather.

First, lets take a look at Monday’s Severe Weather potential

There should be enough lift in the air to develop a line of gusty showers and storms by tomorrow afternoon, I think we may start to see some of that energy across central and southern Indiana. Storm chances increase right around 2-4pm.
The key threats are:
-Strong Damaging Wind Gusts
-Strong Hail

However, we are not done, this next round coming in on Tuesday morning-aft’n  is showing something more brash. A line of showers and storms will zip across the area. Perhaps, there is enough vertical cooling to promote a few complex storms ahead of the main line.

There is enough spin to put a risk for a few isolated tornadoes along with the risk of damaging wind gusts and severe hail.

Not to mention, some flooding concerns, here is a look at the NAM estimated rainfall forecast once Tuesday’s  storms move through.

Don’t forget! You can find me on Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! Stay safe and feel free to like my weather page
“Forecaster Darius Mack” or follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx

 

NEW BLOG POST

I’m bloging this afternoon, so that must mean that something interesting is happening!
It’s Tuesday and believe it or not storms are already firing up across the Ohio valley regions, I’m tracking all of the latest and the latest models and discussions are indicative that there will be rampant clusters of storms developing along the I-65 corridor and tracking towards the Northeast. Here is a look at what the FUTURERAD depicts:

ImageImageImageImage

 

According to the models, I think most of the energy will be centered around the Ohio River Valley, and Northern Kentucky, and especially eastern Kentucky will be dealing with most of the action. I‘m really highlighting zones as far as Louisville, and other counties along the I-71 corridor, that’s where the “bull’s-eye” will set for the most part. Around 3-4pm. Most of the storms will become more organized across central Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed alot of our reading audience, and all of Central Kentucky for that matter, under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather.
Here are some things to think about
-Damaging Winds
– A Few Tornadoes

Image

And like always, I will be on standby and tracking the latest. Be sure to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx
Or follow up with me and my colleagues on Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky.

Stormy Start Next Week!

I’m updating you late on this Friday evening about several storm threats the weather community is watching. The latest twitter feed on my wall is like a thesaurus about the storm potential for next week. SO I decided to take a look at some things for myself…
FutureRad is indicating a broad storm system moving in Late Tuesday night and early morning hours on Wednesday. Now remember, Severe Weather is very tricky to forecast.. This isn’t an accurate model, since we are looking at about 5 days in advance, but this model does give you a general idea on how the storms will play out.

 

Image
Next, I look at the dynamics of the storm system, the deeper yellows is what I’m looking at, which indicates that in the process, we could anticipate a strong storm pattern.. Now the weather term for this is Vorticity, I use this to monitor the potential height of the storm. The higher the storm, the more active it gets, and from the looks of it we can anticipate strong winds and a lot of heavy rain.

Image

(Courtesy of SimuAwips)

This is Just a brief update, and is not the final forecast, this is more like a heads up! I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, have a safe weekend! And enjoy the nice 79 degree weather on Saturday!