snow

Light Snow Likely Today Through Tuesday

10:40  am 01/15/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Happy MLK Day! We had some light snow showers move through parts of central and eastern Kentucky last night, it did put down atleast a quarter to a half inch on top of what we’ve already had. Places in extreme Northern Kentucky have already seen atleast an inch of snow from last night’s showers. No matter how much snow you got this did create some slick spots this morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as more snow is expected later today and throughout Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Today’s highs could peak at or around the freezing mark before the front moves in.

GFS snowcast

Here is a look at some model runs.

The European run is more aggressive putting 2″-5″ snow potential through the state. *NOT A FORECAST* This is used as guidance.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

The Hi-Res Nam shows 1″-2″ of snow.

NAM snow totals

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow Output, WxBell

It’s with last night’s light snow disturbance , that has increased my confidence that we could see atleast an inch or two of snow out of this swath that will set-up from northwest to southeast. Yes, the last forecast was overdone, but I think I have a better handle on this one since this will likely be an ALL SNOW event.

First Shot at snow

The School Watch Meter Remains a 5 out of 11

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I will tweet and post Radar Updates through the day!

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Light Snow Chances Monday-Tuesday

4:10 pm 01/14/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! The snow from this weekend’s winter storm remains on the ground for many areas. It looks like we’ll see some additional snow accumulations added to that as I’m tracking a light snow maker that moves through the region MLK day.

Here is a look at the GFS run for Monday. It suggests a swath of snow showers and squalls will push from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon.

GFS Monday Light Snow

The Hi-Res Nam also shows the same set-up, except its suggesting a brief mix before the snow dives in. It also pushes the system in a little earlier, say about noontime tomorrow.

NAM-Wxbell-light-snow-Monday

Now. Lets talk snow accumulations LOL.. Last snow system was obviously overdone with the models, but I will say that most areas in western Kentucky did atleast pick up on 5 inches of snow. It’s a reminder that we use these models as a guidance and don’t necessarily take them verbatim. And of course, its hard to predict snow totals when you have rain mixed in as well. However, I will say that this looks more like an all snow event and that does increase my confidence that we will see some light accumulations out of this system.

 

The NAM is not very bullish on the snow totals across the area, but it may also be having a hard time picking up on the embedded snow squalls that will zip through the area.

Nam Snowfall output

HiRes Nam Snowfall, WxBell

The European model shows anywhere from a coating to 2” of snow through much of the area.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Snowfall, WxBell

And the GFS…

GFS snow ouptut

So, here’s what I’m expecting. Minor accumulations. Further southeast you go, the better chance you have of getting 3”. All of the accumulated stuff is expected by Tuesday morning.

First Shot at snow

 

Could there be school closings or delays on Tuesday? The School Watch Meter is showing a Low to Moderate threat.

School Watch Meter Tuesday

Here’s why:

-The main band of snow exits late Monday through d the predawn hours on Tuesday

-Despite the hazardous travel threat, road crews may have time to clear roads that morning before schools open.

-Isolated snow showers and flurries remain through the day Tuesday

-Better chance for school delays than a full day closing.

 

 

If you do get a school closing, I guess there’s not much complaining. 😉

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂

Snow Update

3:54PM January 5, 2017

The snow has arrived and it continues to snow lightly. Radar is showing the snow filtering in from the west. The darker contours indicate periods of heavier snow, that’s something to watch as the evening wears on. A general 1″-3″ is expected.

bwg_None_anim (1).gif

 

Today there were already school closings and for some that went, early dismissals.

With that being said. Lets see how the roads are:

current_i75newt

I-75 Newtown Pike

current_i64ccwb

Clark County I-64  West Bound

current_i75manw

I-75 Man O’ War

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

The school watch Meter still stands at an 8 out of 11 for Friday!

school-watch-meter-friday

Tracking Snow Chances

11:30AM  January 4,2017

Happy New Year! Winter has arrived and despite Kentucky weather’s Spring-like escapades, we’re always reminded that Winter is still upon us. For the last two days its been dreary and in the 60s. Today, bare cold and frigid weather is filtering into the region. But lets be hopeful, if you feel like you’re missing out on the snow this season, there’s a good chance we get our first accumulating snowfall later this week, in fact, soon!

 

Tomorrow, I’m tracking a snowmaker that will usher through in waves. The track and chances of this snow system has been consistent over the past couple of days, it’s not going to be a shutdown snow, but it is just enough snow to be noticed. As you can see from the NAM run, the snow moves in as early as Thursday morning. However, keep in mind that the snow must tackle some of the dry air we have place now. So, it’s likely we’ll start off with just a couple of flakes falling from the sky. Don’t anticipate an immediate “snow down” once the first flakes arrive. I’ll say around 10am-the afternoon and evening, we’ll see some moderate and even heavier bands of snow that could put down a couple of inches in some spots.

nam-model-runs

NAM MODEL RUNS-PIVOTALWEATHER

 

In terms of accumulation, NAM is putting the I-64 corridor around the 1”-3” for accumulating snow. *NOTE This goes from Thursday through Friday morning.

snowfall-accumulation-fri

NAM SNOWFALL -PIVOTALWEATHER

 

Here’s my initial thoughts on the expected snowfall…

snow-potential

So kids, Snow day tomorrow? Not likely, I think there’s a better chance for school closings Friday.

School watch meter Thursday.jpg school-watch-meter-friday

I’ll keep you posted! 😉

 

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

bwg_None_anim.gif

 

I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

lapse rates.jpg

College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

winter weather advisories.jpg

Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

Increasing High Impact Snow Storm

11:55 a 01/21

Models continue to show crippling snow totals statewide, so here is my latest shot at snow, Anywhere ranging from from 6″-14+”  expected across the state. My Latest shot at snow shows  a general 8″-12″ expected across central Kentucky. (Note: I’m being conservative with these numbers) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the sate. Prepare for significant crippling snows across the region.

winter storm warning ff last shot at snow

Cripling Snow Headed Our Way

1/20  11:20p

Good late evening, confidence on widespread accumulating snow has increased, we are just a little over 24 hours away from the expected winter storm. I also want to make a pointer, earlier call was quite conservative with numbers, this second bite is also pretty conservative with snow totals. Anywhere from 6″-14″ expected across central and eastern Kentucky. Not to mention, mixing in southern Kentucky could put down a layer of ice, below the accumulating snow. Here is what i’m thinking now, changes will be made tomorrow afternoon.

Second shot at snow