How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.
I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky
Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…
But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.
Hi Res NAM shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..
With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…
A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.
I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.
– Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .
– Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse
– This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.
Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.