Severe

Tracking Severe Storms This Weekend

Good Saturday morning , I hope everyone is enjoying the nice weather we had thus far. Changes are coming in the short term as I’m seeing a severe weather risk on your Saturday, and not only that the heat and humidity ramps up as highs will reach the low 80s, which make it ripe for thunderstorm development. Not to mention, dewpoints will be in the 70s which is also promotes the ‘juicing’ of these thunderstorms. With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced risk over much of the Ohio valley region.

SPC outlook1.jpg

 

Tomorrow morning things are relatively quiet, but things are anticipated to pick up during the heating of the day. Storms will begin to build along a west to east corridor, almost acting like a conveyor belt, these storms will track through central Kentucky. I would say around 12PM-3PM are the times to keep checking your radar apps… What you are seeing is one of the high resolution models called the HRRR  that updates by the hour. It shows us a guidance on what we can expect during the day,  by the hour.

HRRR-Saturday

 

All in all, some will get hit with storms at some point of time, while others may not, but eventually everyone will likely see storms tomorrow. These storms will have alot of water, and will cause some localized flood threats which is why the Flood threat is set at a moderate.  The main threats are damaging wind, hail, and while the tornado threat isn’t quite high, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Threat Index 2

 

I’ll keep you posted!

Darius,

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Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

8:30P 02/01

It’s been an exceptionally pleasant weekend, today also wasn’t too bad despite the morning showers. If you haven’t been outside already, you’ve wasted your time, that being said. I’m watching potent weather arriving here tomorrow.

SPC outlook 2(2)

SPC Preliminary Severe Weather Threat, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky

 

 

Last update, you remember me touching base on this, and it’s likely that tomorrow winds and heavy rain will rough us up a bit. The Storm Prediction Center highlights most the Mississippi valley under some type of risk for severe weather tomorrow. The city of Lexington is under a Slight risk of severe weather, the cities of Bowling Green and Louisville are under an Enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary threat is damaging winds, and you can’t rule out the chance for possible spin up tornadoes.

ECWMWF highs

ECMWF MAX-TEMPS, WxBell

 

Not to mention, tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 60s to possibly even 70.

There is no doubt about the severe weather potential that we have:

 

  1. We have a convergence of warmth surging in from the southwest.
  2. Significant daytime heating for this time of year, (temps around 65 degrees).
  3. Increasing surface temps will also increase lifting in the air.
  4. Behind that, cooler air on tap.
HiRes-Model-run

NAM 4KM Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

The WxBell HiRes Nam shows that some showers may start as early as 7 or 8 am, that won’t be the thing to worry about. The bigger threat arrives around 5-7pm, storms will push in from the southwest and track towards the north- east. Gusts are expected to be around 40-50+mph.

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, and feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx where I will be updating you on the latest weather situations

Keep your Eye on the Skies Today. #ffcky #kywx

10:20 AM 07/13/15

Posted by Darius Mack
Good Morning! First things first, i’m talking severe weather potential. Yesterday evening I brought you the news that severe weather is likely today, the SPC once placed us under a Moderate risk, there has been some modifications, and the updated risk downgrades to an Enhanced risk, really not much of a downgrade, as an Enhanced risk for severe weather is still synonymous with widespread storms capable of producing damaging wind, hail, and possibly tornadoes. The primary concern should be damaging winds and localized flooding.

Spc outlook 4

Round 1: Models place a pronounced bowing complex right over the central part of the state, and if i’m not mistaken this looks like a derecho, which is characterized by intense straight-line winds. The best timing would be around 2-6 pm, I think an outflow boundary may generate some daytime storms ahead of the main line.

HRR model run Monday

Round 2 comes in later tonight…

HRRR model run 2 Monday

I’ll Keep you posted, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky has declared SEVERE WEATHER MODE which mean our team will work around the clock to make sure you are out of danger’s way.

I‘M UP READY TO ROLL #KYWX

7:00 AM October 06,2014
Well we may have just ran short of fall over the weekend, our first Frost Advisory for the commonwealth, and as sponge bob would say “ The best time to wear a striped sweater, is all the time!”, well that was certainly the case, you get to pick whether or not to wear the turtle neck. This morning, I’m issuing a “Hot Coco” advisory, there’s no frost, but the air is at a brisk. We warm it back up, especially on Tuesday as highs will surge back into the 70s, as a compensation. Rain chances are on the rise, and we have a severe weather risk. I’m not expecting anything in terms of Spring like Severe weather, but more like a Fall set-up.

thebesttime

TODAY: First, I’m tracking a Jet stream which will act as a reinforcement to those showers and storms that will move across Southern Kentucky and the Tennessee valley areas. Several waves of energy will pivot across the Mississippi valley lands, ahead of the actual front that will persist eastward. First round comes in later this morning, the second one comes in this afternoon, then the third. Watching out for rush-hour, that’s the timing we can expect some louder natured storms through the region. There is enough spin to maybe put down a few spin up tornadoes across the I-65 corridor later on this afternoon, doesn’t mean that I’m promising anything, but that is something our team is monitoring. Highs today will top around 65-68 degrees area wide.

Spc outllookHires models

*The STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED most of central Kentucky under a slight risk for SEVERE WEATHER, Here are the things to watch out for:
-Damaging Winds
-Isolated Tornadoes

TUESDAY: 71 degrees for the high with more storms in the forecast.
Stick with the team for the latest, Chris, Kyle, and I may be joining back with you later this evening. If you have any questions contact me at DariusMack.FootsForecast@mail.com or DM me on twitter!
-Forecaster Darius Mack
Twitter:@dariusmack_wx

TRACKING MORE STORMS #kywx

10:35AM 07/14/14
A very busy pattern continues to track through our area today, this morning showers and storms are upon us and it’s all some much needed rain. MERCER county has picked up about 2.02” of rain, JESSAMINE county has picked up about 1.06” of rain, and MADISON county has picked up nearly 1.30” of rain in the past 8 hours. This stuff is non-severe and will remain non-severe this morning.

BUT…The Storm Prediction center is Oklahoma has extended the SLIGHT risk for severe weather to include the Ohio river valley. The reason for that is that there is an area of frontogenesis that will extend through Arkansas, Missouri ,and into western Kentucky and it won’t be widespread, but during the heating of the day and if the instability still holds, that’s conducive to producing just a few loud boomers this afternoon and into the evening hours. Greatest chance for Severe weather is places south of the I-64 corridor.

Storms won't be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Storms won’t be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s. For Lexington a high of 86°.

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE LATEST Risk,
The Key threats include:
-Damaging Winds
-Severe Hail

spc outlook

Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky will be providing you with the latest during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! I’ll see you guys later!

                                               -Darius

                                              @dariusmack_wx

NEW BLOG POST

Hello Everyone on this warm and windy Sunday afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts, because it’s going to be very wet the next several days as we anticipate rounds of heavy downpours and storms moving into the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Mississippi river valley under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. These storms will come in sequence, and several potential factors are:
-Heavy Rainfall(Flash Flooding)
-Strong Damaging Winds(Power Outages)
– Large Hail

Image
The latest trends and discussions suggest a pretty intense dynamic storm system enveloped over Kentucky and Tennessee, which is why right now would be the appropriate time to purchase a NOAA weather radio and devise a Severe weather plan with your family.

Here is a look at the latest model runs, Late tonight and early tomorrow morning we could see the first round of storms moving in, they will be strong but most likely not severe, the big picture, shows that the main event looks to arrive Monday evening(3-5PM) and impact the early morning hours on your Tuesday(2AM-8AM)…

ImageImageImageImageImageImage

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, I will be informing you and alerting you on the severe weather situation, along with my colleagues on this link: https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky