Schools

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

My Thoughts and the School Watch Meter #kywx

12:25 AM November 15,2014
Good early morning  peeps , it’s time to track the latest on the snow potential we have coming later this weekend. Remember on Tuesday how I told you about the potential for some accumulating snows? I know some have tried to ignore the thought of it, but there’s really no way of escaping it. As for me, I do love snow, and other snow lovers may feast their eyes on the first winter storm of the season. storm set up sunday

First, Let’s talk about that storm potential, here is a look at the SET-UP Sunday night through Monday morning. Latest suggestions continue to show a possible early winter storm. I think we may see some reinforced heavy bands of snow that may track SW to NE, most likely across the I-65 corridor, and with these heavy snows we should anticipate these bands to dump some quick sizeable amounts.
Here are my latest thoughts. Should I tweak them higher or lower? We’ll just have to see tomorrow!

first shot at snowfall

Superintendents, your School Watch Meter for Monday is giving us a moderate chance for a snow day, sitting at a 6.This may change stay tuned for more updates. Stay safe!

School watch meter Monday
(Forecaster Darius Mack)

School Will be Back in Session FCPS

I’m monitoring the latest, it looks to appear that the sun was out for a substantial amount of time, highs didn’t get above freezing, but with the Sun’s direct angling on us, it aided most of the snow and ice to melt away. Patches of black ice could still be on any back roads in Lexington as we go throughout the overnight and early morning hours. Your School Watch Meter is LOW, which means that there shouldn’t be much issues heading to school in the morning. There is a Slight chance for a schools delay as well, but that cannot be ruled out.

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Latest School Watch Meter. Go ahead and Sleep In!

As road conditions continue to deteriorate and more nasty stuff is in the forecast, I have decided to go ahead and post my latest thoughts. Superintendents, school officials, go ahead and call school off Immediately! If you’ve haven’t made a decision already, RIGHT NOW should be the best time.
There are already several area wide School Closings to list:
-Bourbon County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
-Clark County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
-Harrison County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
-Madison County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
-Mason County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
-Owen County (Closed Monday Mar.3)
More Schools will be added on this list as the night progresses.. For now FCPS, you guys have a High Chance for a Snowday, sooooo High this could go off the scale!

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