rain

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

NEW BLOG POST

Hello Everyone on this warm and windy Sunday afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts, because it’s going to be very wet the next several days as we anticipate rounds of heavy downpours and storms moving into the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Mississippi river valley under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. These storms will come in sequence, and several potential factors are:
-Heavy Rainfall(Flash Flooding)
-Strong Damaging Winds(Power Outages)
– Large Hail

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The latest trends and discussions suggest a pretty intense dynamic storm system enveloped over Kentucky and Tennessee, which is why right now would be the appropriate time to purchase a NOAA weather radio and devise a Severe weather plan with your family.

Here is a look at the latest model runs, Late tonight and early tomorrow morning we could see the first round of storms moving in, they will be strong but most likely not severe, the big picture, shows that the main event looks to arrive Monday evening(3-5PM) and impact the early morning hours on your Tuesday(2AM-8AM)…

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I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, I will be informing you and alerting you on the severe weather situation, along with my colleagues on this link: https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

Winter Tackles Once Again

WINTER TACKLES US AGAIN!

Good Tuesday evening everyone, it’s been a while since you’ve seen me active on the blog, that’s because there wasn’t much of any active stuff out there. Those of you who thought to unbuckle the seatbelt and think that we have fully arrived to our destination, you might want to put it back on, because we only made a pit-stop. Today highs are in the 70s, tomorrow will be a different story as we anticipate a 25-30+ degree temperature crash. Just think, in 24-36hours we will be sitting in the low 30s, and then later on in the teens by early Thursday morning. That’s all associated with rain and snow pivoting it’s way in across the Ohio River Valley. It’s going to get very bumpy throughout this ride, tomorrow morning temps will sit in the upper 50s, you’ll still need to carry your jacket, temps will continue to drop throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
Scattered showers move in around roughly 8 or 9 tomorrow morning, around Noon-2pm several spots will be void of some of the rain, doesn’t mean your are threw, more kicks back in around 3pm, and this time the actual front will move through our area, allowing temps to drop even further….

Look at what our models are picking up on around 5PM……
There will be a wide range of temps, parts of Kentucky could be near 60s, while other parts will be in the 30s. This looks very wild to me in terms of temperatures. Rainy, and a cooler surge of air moves in West to East.

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Thus, 8pm…..Maybe a little wintry action could show up across the land. Not very pretty, enough to cause a few slick spots ,so eating out may not be a good plan, but I must say that we shouldn’t anticipate much of any accumulating snows.

8-9PM, a “finger” or” thumb” or a light swath of snow moves in….temps hovering around 30 degrees.

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Lastly, any of that left over snow punches eastward, and should all drive out around early Thursday morning, more like Super early Thursday Morning.(3AM)

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I really didn’t think I had to post a snowfall potential map, any general areas can expect at least a half an inch of snow, a localized inch is certainly possible. 2 inches of snow is the limit in this range, doesn’t mean that everyone will get 2 inches of snow.

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SO…. what is the SCHOOL WATCH METER for Thursday, it does not look like a promising SNOWDAY, however delays cannot be ruled out. Your School Watch meter is at a Low 4.

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-Forecaster Darius Mack