mix

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Winter Weather Tracker Update. #KYWX

Posted at 4:25 AM January 26,2015 by Darius Mack

Good early morning gang, we’re watching for the possibility of slick travel this morning as snow moves across parts of the region this morning. Here is a current look at the Radar from Intellicast. What you’re seeing is the low-level wrap around moisture as the LOW tracks east.

bwg_None_anim

This isn’t a widespread snow, but lets check and see how those temps are this morning. Any temps at or below freezing is something to be concerned about, several areas could see some ICY spots on the roads this morning.

temps right now

Now lets track those road conditions.

I-75 @ Man o’ War

I-75 Man o War

Scott I-75 SB 127 MM

I75 SB 127MM

I-75@1-71 Southern Split

I-75@1-71 Southern Split

  I-275 @1-471

I-275 @1-471   

I-64 @ East 22nd Street Louisville

64 E at 22ND street Louisvile

Since road conditions look to have deteriorated and temp are subfreezing, The School Watch Mete is under a LOW-MODERATE chance for a closing, there is an increased risk however of a school delay.

School Watch Meter Monday

Will Winter Deliver the package this Weekend? #kywx

10:30 PM November 11,2014
It’s Late this Tuesday evening, but no worries I have your update on that snow potential I talked to you about  a few days ago. The snow chances have now been pushed back to Sunday. But first, lets track some of that stuff that’s on the radar. Gusty lines of showers are pushing in SW to NE this hour, these showers are gusting generally around 30-40mph, this will exit throughout the first half of your Wednesday, but those temps are on the decline and that is the case for the rest of the week. Make sure you bundle up! bwg_None_anim (1)

FAST FORWARD… BOOM KAZAM! It’s action packed, no telling how many snow day questions I’ve been getting concerning this snow event expected Sunday evening. Let me get things straight, I know the weather more than I know our superintendent, will she be generous on those snow days this year? I don’t know. If my confidence level improves I might share my thoughts on that on Friday. Right now I just want to talk about snow potential,
SATURDAY, I’m watching a mid-wave disturbance that set’s up across the Kansas/Missouri valley, and a southern flow will aid in the moisture bank, just how much are we talking? Here is a look at those GFS runs. The Blue line represents the freezing line, notice how it stays below Kentucky. A series of snow showers will likely filter through Sunday night- Monday morning is the timing that I’m closely watching. GFS spits out a general 1-2 inches for our region and locally higher amounts can be expected by Monday afternoon.
My confidence on this however is still a 50/50, if this holds it should boost up by Friday!

GFS models sunday       GFS accumulation model monday
Stay safe!

(Forecaster Darius Mack)