Mack

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter
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Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

bwg_None_anim.gif

 

I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

lapse rates.jpg

College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

winter weather advisories.jpg

Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday and the School Watch Meter

10:00 PM 01/18

It’s a very brisk MLK Jr Day, highs only made it into the upper teens, the daytime high in Lexington was 19 degrees, barely hit 20, however windchills hovered anywhere around 0 to 5 degrees this afternoon. We’re stuck with this cold tomorrow as well as highs are only expected to reach the low 20s.

Now on to Wednesday, a snow moves in Wednesday morning, and at this point it is likely that several spots could see a couple of inches,  especially for those across southern Kentucky .  Snowfall ratios will be near 8:1, thanks to a very cold ground set by this Arctic cold, and temperatures that morning will be in the upper teens and lower 20s. Here is my first shot at snow. First Shot at snow.jpg

 

Now a Snowday comes into question, and as a former Scott County student, I always loved to see snow in the forecast, because that meant a possible delay or closing.School teachers and staff, I know the ‘talk of the town ‘ will be Wednesday morning’s snow. So here’s just a run-down of what i’m seeing

  1. Snow arrives around 5-8 am Wednesday morning, roads will remain will below freezing, any snow that falls will stick.
  2. There may be some heavy periods of snow at times which could limit visibility.
  3. Though we aren’t getting the MOST  out of this, regardless,  accumulating snow is conducive to deteriorating road conditions,
  4. Most School systems either Delay or Close school in these type of events, but it’s not my call, its the Superintendent’s.
  5. I will have gain confidence on whether or not there’s a school closing tomorrow, so check back with me.
So for that, I’m giving Scott County Students a MODERATE  chance for a Snowday on Wednesday.
Wednesday School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Tracking Snow Tuesday #KYWX

10:30p 01/11

Good evening, many were anticipating snow this weekend, and did see the first measurable snowfall. Tonight I’m watching the chances of seeing our first measurable snowfall greater than an inch. First of all, the National Weather Service in Louisville has confidence that several areas tomorrow morning will get some intense snows, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for most of the area.Winter Weather Advisory.jpg

 

Now… Let’s talk about the set-up.  Hi-Res NAM shows some hitching snow bands moving into the area Thursday morning, mostly light snow, but you may experience periods of heavy snow at times. Several of these heavier bands of snow could put down an extra quick half inch to an inch of snow on top of the accumulating light snow. The front will also bring gusts of about 30-40 mph, which could cause near whiteout conditions on the roads. School closings and delays are likely to more across central and northern Kentucky.

HiResNam Tuesday

 

Accumulations… It’s a very tricky forecast to grip, Snowfall ratios are around 5 to 1, which means that 1 in of rainfall would be equivalent to 5 inches of snow. Also, these bands will be isolated bands of heavy now, which makes it harder for models to pick where the most snow will fall. The latest NAM total precip shows the general areas that could anticipate more accumulation than others. With the potential water to snow equivalent, several spots could anticipate upwards to about 2” of snow.

Nam Accum Tuesday.jpg

 

However, the GFS pushes the heavier totals more to the north.

GFS accumulation Tuesday

 

With that being said, I’m sticking with my forecast of 1-2” generally for the area. Could some get an impressive 3”? Possibly so. Areas south of I-64 can anticipate a coating-1”.

last shot at snow Tuesday

Also, the snow isn’t the only concern. Wind Chill readings are expected to be in the single digits and lower teens.

Scott County Schools, i’m giving a 7/11 on the Snowday chance tomorrow. Tuesday's School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Keep your Eye on the Skies Today. #ffcky #kywx

10:20 AM 07/13/15

Posted by Darius Mack
Good Morning! First things first, i’m talking severe weather potential. Yesterday evening I brought you the news that severe weather is likely today, the SPC once placed us under a Moderate risk, there has been some modifications, and the updated risk downgrades to an Enhanced risk, really not much of a downgrade, as an Enhanced risk for severe weather is still synonymous with widespread storms capable of producing damaging wind, hail, and possibly tornadoes. The primary concern should be damaging winds and localized flooding.

Spc outlook 4

Round 1: Models place a pronounced bowing complex right over the central part of the state, and if i’m not mistaken this looks like a derecho, which is characterized by intense straight-line winds. The best timing would be around 2-6 pm, I think an outflow boundary may generate some daytime storms ahead of the main line.

HRR model run Monday

Round 2 comes in later tonight…

HRRR model run 2 Monday

I’ll Keep you posted, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky has declared SEVERE WEATHER MODE which mean our team will work around the clock to make sure you are out of danger’s way.

Light Snow Showers Possible Late Wednesday. #KYWX

9:20 PM 11/18/14

It’s late this Tuesday evening and i’m tracking a polar plunge, the effects of that is being shown through those wind chill readings this hour, courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet.

Kentucky_web

Snow chances return, as a period of light snow will move through the region late Wednesday through early Thursday morning. NAM suggests a line of snow showers moving in Wednesday night. SO those of you asking me “When is the next time we’ll see snow?” There’s your answer.

snow squal Thursday

Double Checking…

GFS also shows a light snow band early Thursday morning. Temps during this will likely be around 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

gfs thursday

All in all, don’t anticipate much accumulation, a dusting or a trace is possible, some areas may not even see anything on the ground.

Good night and stay safe!

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Last Shot at Snowfall and the School Watch Meter. #kywx

7:45 PM November 16,2014

Good Sunday evening folks! We have Winter officially on our door step and I’m tracking those changes tonight. First, I want to show you the latest on RADAR, the rain/ snow transition is making it’s way NW to SE, as you can see extreme northern portions of the viewing audience is already getting some of that snow this hour.

bwg_None_anim (3)

HOWEVER, temps right now are staying a bit on the warm side for this stuff to accumulate, and we got a while before we can anticipate seeing some wet and snowy covered roads tomorrow morning. I think I have “forecaster’s gut” It’s a cringe every forecaster gets when he knows there are some adjustments to be made. I want to back track a bit, this morning, 2-4” was my call. But as I’m getting closer, these temps won’t drop quick enough, and this may not be the type of snow to do that. Here is my Final Shot at the snow forecast.

first shot at snowfall
NOW, the School watch meter hasn’t went up or down and it’s staying at a steady 8 for school closings here in central Kentucky. I must say Central Kentucky, because not all of Kentucky will get their first snow day. I’ll be up tracking the latest!

School watch meter Monday

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Another FALL in temps #kywx

Good late evening everyone, i’ve been really busy but I am home and able to update you on this “polar vortex” set to take another dive into the region starting early next week.

Long story short, 

Will you need hot coco? Well…, maybe it depends if you enjoy drinking it year round. 

Highs will be in the 70s, Lows in the 50s. 🙂 

A new 7 day forecast will be up tomorrow, stay tuned!cooling down

TRACKING MORE STORMS #kywx

10:35AM 07/14/14
A very busy pattern continues to track through our area today, this morning showers and storms are upon us and it’s all some much needed rain. MERCER county has picked up about 2.02” of rain, JESSAMINE county has picked up about 1.06” of rain, and MADISON county has picked up nearly 1.30” of rain in the past 8 hours. This stuff is non-severe and will remain non-severe this morning.

BUT…The Storm Prediction center is Oklahoma has extended the SLIGHT risk for severe weather to include the Ohio river valley. The reason for that is that there is an area of frontogenesis that will extend through Arkansas, Missouri ,and into western Kentucky and it won’t be widespread, but during the heating of the day and if the instability still holds, that’s conducive to producing just a few loud boomers this afternoon and into the evening hours. Greatest chance for Severe weather is places south of the I-64 corridor.

Storms won't be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Storms won’t be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s. For Lexington a high of 86°.

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE LATEST Risk,
The Key threats include:
-Damaging Winds
-Severe Hail

spc outlook

Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky will be providing you with the latest during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! I’ll see you guys later!

                                               -Darius

                                              @dariusmack_wx

TRACKING SEVERE WEATHER

Hello! It’s been a while since I’ve posted on the blog, I hope you all have had a safe holiday weekend and I know some of you will be off tomorrow enjoying your super extended weekend. Well you know when I post something on here that means I’m talking about something BIG, and I’m not talking about Gov. Chris Christie, I’m talking about severe weather.

First, lets take a look at Monday’s Severe Weather potential

There should be enough lift in the air to develop a line of gusty showers and storms by tomorrow afternoon, I think we may start to see some of that energy across central and southern Indiana. Storm chances increase right around 2-4pm.
The key threats are:
-Strong Damaging Wind Gusts
-Strong Hail

However, we are not done, this next round coming in on Tuesday morning-aft’n  is showing something more brash. A line of showers and storms will zip across the area. Perhaps, there is enough vertical cooling to promote a few complex storms ahead of the main line.

There is enough spin to put a risk for a few isolated tornadoes along with the risk of damaging wind gusts and severe hail.

Not to mention, some flooding concerns, here is a look at the NAM estimated rainfall forecast once Tuesday’s  storms move through.

Don’t forget! You can find me on Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! Stay safe and feel free to like my weather page
“Forecaster Darius Mack” or follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx