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Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter
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Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

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I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

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College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

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Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

Last Shot at Snowfall and the School Watch Meter. #kywx

7:45 PM November 16,2014

Good Sunday evening folks! We have Winter officially on our door step and I’m tracking those changes tonight. First, I want to show you the latest on RADAR, the rain/ snow transition is making it’s way NW to SE, as you can see extreme northern portions of the viewing audience is already getting some of that snow this hour.

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HOWEVER, temps right now are staying a bit on the warm side for this stuff to accumulate, and we got a while before we can anticipate seeing some wet and snowy covered roads tomorrow morning. I think I have “forecaster’s gut” It’s a cringe every forecaster gets when he knows there are some adjustments to be made. I want to back track a bit, this morning, 2-4” was my call. But as I’m getting closer, these temps won’t drop quick enough, and this may not be the type of snow to do that. Here is my Final Shot at the snow forecast.

first shot at snowfall
NOW, the School watch meter hasn’t went up or down and it’s staying at a steady 8 for school closings here in central Kentucky. I must say Central Kentucky, because not all of Kentucky will get their first snow day. I’ll be up tracking the latest!

School watch meter Monday

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Another FALL in temps #kywx

Good late evening everyone, i’ve been really busy but I am home and able to update you on this “polar vortex” set to take another dive into the region starting early next week.

Long story short, 

Will you need hot coco? Well…, maybe it depends if you enjoy drinking it year round. 

Highs will be in the 70s, Lows in the 50s. 🙂 

A new 7 day forecast will be up tomorrow, stay tuned!cooling down

Stormy Start Next Week!

I’m updating you late on this Friday evening about several storm threats the weather community is watching. The latest twitter feed on my wall is like a thesaurus about the storm potential for next week. SO I decided to take a look at some things for myself…
FutureRad is indicating a broad storm system moving in Late Tuesday night and early morning hours on Wednesday. Now remember, Severe Weather is very tricky to forecast.. This isn’t an accurate model, since we are looking at about 5 days in advance, but this model does give you a general idea on how the storms will play out.

 

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Next, I look at the dynamics of the storm system, the deeper yellows is what I’m looking at, which indicates that in the process, we could anticipate a strong storm pattern.. Now the weather term for this is Vorticity, I use this to monitor the potential height of the storm. The higher the storm, the more active it gets, and from the looks of it we can anticipate strong winds and a lot of heavy rain.

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(Courtesy of SimuAwips)

This is Just a brief update, and is not the final forecast, this is more like a heads up! I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, have a safe weekend! And enjoy the nice 79 degree weather on Saturday!

NEW BLOG POST

Hello! I haven’t posted on my blog in a while. Simply because there has really been nothing to talk about the past several days, So here is just an updated post just catch up on a few things. Today we’ve felt a weak cold front roll through the region, but by tomorrow things look to recover back into the 70s. Much nicer weather in store for your weekend! Here is a look at your Updated 7 Day Forecast:

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Tracking a potential for a few showers and maybe even some thunder action by early Friday morning. Nothing severe is expected, but rain is on it’s way, and it will clear out rather quickly. That’s a look at your updated Forecast! Have a Great Day!

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Spring With Just a hint of winter.

Good Late afternoon to you everyone, you’ll love this Friday’s forecast, However your weekend looks wet and rainy.

Perhaps i shouldn’t even mention next week? Here is a look at your updated forecast with a return of Winter.This could be a significant snow event, sleet is also a possibility.I will keep you posted.Image

-Forecaster Darius Mack

Contact: DariusMack.FootsForecast@mail.com