forecast

Just How Warm are we going to get?

11:15 AM  01/29 Good Friday morning! I’m going to be brief because I have to get back to my homework, I’m posting about this because I feel like its worth sharing. Starting  tomorrow and into early next week a dramatic spike in temperatures are expected.

The EURO,( which is really good on picking up temp trends) is showing some extreme warmth set up for Kentucky, especially for this time of year.

Saturday: The Euro is putting highs in the mid 50s for the area, not to mention we’ll have pleasant conditions as well..

euro highs

ECMWF Surface Temps Saturday, WxBell

Sunday and Monday highs will stay in the 50s, rain showers arrive Sunday evening, and exit by Monday afternoon.

 

Now on to  Tuesday. Tuesday evening temps could be well into the 60s. The Euro shows a high-budget temperature wise, putting highs in the upper 60s near 70..

Tuesday highs euro

ECMWF Surface Temps Tuesday, WxBell

 

BUT.. The Canadian and GFS are putting highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. quite opposed to the upper 60s. I think there’s a good shot at us reaching the mid 60s.

However, one thing they all agree with is a system bringing a whole lot of wind and rain late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Followed by a  sharp crash in temps, by Wednesday afternoon temps could be in the low 30s, and thing is, we’re not done yet.

A push of Arctic air continues to move through the Midwest, and  there is a possibility that next Friday’s highs could be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

gfs Vort Friday

GFS 500 VORT, WxBell.

 

I’ll keep you posted, enjoy your weekend! 🙂

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Keep your Eye on the Skies Today. #ffcky #kywx

10:20 AM 07/13/15

Posted by Darius Mack
Good Morning! First things first, i’m talking severe weather potential. Yesterday evening I brought you the news that severe weather is likely today, the SPC once placed us under a Moderate risk, there has been some modifications, and the updated risk downgrades to an Enhanced risk, really not much of a downgrade, as an Enhanced risk for severe weather is still synonymous with widespread storms capable of producing damaging wind, hail, and possibly tornadoes. The primary concern should be damaging winds and localized flooding.

Spc outlook 4

Round 1: Models place a pronounced bowing complex right over the central part of the state, and if i’m not mistaken this looks like a derecho, which is characterized by intense straight-line winds. The best timing would be around 2-6 pm, I think an outflow boundary may generate some daytime storms ahead of the main line.

HRR model run Monday

Round 2 comes in later tonight…

HRRR model run 2 Monday

I’ll Keep you posted, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky has declared SEVERE WEATHER MODE which mean our team will work around the clock to make sure you are out of danger’s way.

Tracking the Latest #KYWX

Posted at 8:10 PM February 20,2015 By Darius Mack

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Good evening gang, This has been an historical week for many, first the double digit snows, then followed by record breaking cold, and then we track several rounds of winter with that. Right now i’m watching the Winter Storm Threat this hour. Beginning as snow for western Kentucky, may transition to freezing rain in sleet in the next several hours. The timing on this is a little earlier, the earliest we can expect this snow is around 10pm tonight. Temps statewide are sitting in the 20s, a southern flow moves in, which means we got a hefty moisture bank with this particular system, by tomorrow afternoon some may see temps in the low 30s, and southern zones by see temps in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Depending on where you live, and the temperature, will be the cutting edge on who gets what. Which is why I’ve made my latest thoughts about this Winter Storm. Some areas may get more Ice than others, and some areas may get more snow than others. Keep checking with Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky’s Facebook page , or my twitter page @dariusmackwx for the latest updates!

Winter Storm Thoughts

Thursday’s SCHOOL WATCH METER #KYWX

Posted at 5:45 PM February 11,2015 by Darius Mack

Hello folks!

Lots of you have been asking me on whether or not it will snow, what time it will snow, and how much, I’m going to just get straight to the point. Predicting School closings is very difficult, with administrators there is really no cutting line or specific amount of snow that causes for delays and closings, that was certainly proven a few weeks ago. The SCHOOL WATCH meter is at a 5, putting a LOW-MODERATE chance for a SnowDay for central Kentucky students.

School watch meter Thursday

Latest GFS and NAM suggests a series of bursts of snow moving through the morning hours and does have a likelihood of impacting morning travel concerning visibility. There will be periods of snow throughout the day as well. School delays are likely, we shouldn’t anticipate much snow, here are my thoughts.

First shot at Snow Thursday

That’s not the only thing, i’m watching for, next week shows a potent snow system. Check with me later tonight to see my final thoughts concerning the School Watch Meter.

I will be up tomorrow tracking possible closings and delays. 🙂

Short and Brief. #KYWX

Posted at 4:55PM on January 22,2015 by Darius Mack

It’s Thursday and the chance for wintry weather on Friday remains, the big question is how much will it impact you?

Latest trends show slightly warmer temps, which means that temps might press too warm for it to be plain snow, I think most of us will start off with rain, then the transition to sleet, then the transition to snow. Here are my initial thoughts on snow, Not impressive in concerns of snow amounts, only expect minor accumulations for most of the region, most of us may see more rain than snow. Stay tuned for more updates, I do expect to make more modifications as the storm gets closer.

snowfal potential friday

TRACKING MORE STORMS #kywx

10:35AM 07/14/14
A very busy pattern continues to track through our area today, this morning showers and storms are upon us and it’s all some much needed rain. MERCER county has picked up about 2.02” of rain, JESSAMINE county has picked up about 1.06” of rain, and MADISON county has picked up nearly 1.30” of rain in the past 8 hours. This stuff is non-severe and will remain non-severe this morning.

BUT…The Storm Prediction center is Oklahoma has extended the SLIGHT risk for severe weather to include the Ohio river valley. The reason for that is that there is an area of frontogenesis that will extend through Arkansas, Missouri ,and into western Kentucky and it won’t be widespread, but during the heating of the day and if the instability still holds, that’s conducive to producing just a few loud boomers this afternoon and into the evening hours. Greatest chance for Severe weather is places south of the I-64 corridor.

Storms won't be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Storms won’t be widespread, but there is a greater chance for SEVERE weather in southern regions.

Highs today should be in the mid to upper 80s. For Lexington a high of 86°.

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE LATEST Risk,
The Key threats include:
-Damaging Winds
-Severe Hail

spc outlook

Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky will be providing you with the latest during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! I’ll see you guys later!

                                               -Darius

                                              @dariusmack_wx

TRACKING SEVERE WEATHER

Hello! It’s been a while since I’ve posted on the blog, I hope you all have had a safe holiday weekend and I know some of you will be off tomorrow enjoying your super extended weekend. Well you know when I post something on here that means I’m talking about something BIG, and I’m not talking about Gov. Chris Christie, I’m talking about severe weather.

First, lets take a look at Monday’s Severe Weather potential

There should be enough lift in the air to develop a line of gusty showers and storms by tomorrow afternoon, I think we may start to see some of that energy across central and southern Indiana. Storm chances increase right around 2-4pm.
The key threats are:
-Strong Damaging Wind Gusts
-Strong Hail

However, we are not done, this next round coming in on Tuesday morning-aft’n  is showing something more brash. A line of showers and storms will zip across the area. Perhaps, there is enough vertical cooling to promote a few complex storms ahead of the main line.

There is enough spin to put a risk for a few isolated tornadoes along with the risk of damaging wind gusts and severe hail.

Not to mention, some flooding concerns, here is a look at the NAM estimated rainfall forecast once Tuesday’s  storms move through.

Don’t forget! You can find me on Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky during SEVERE WEATHER MODE coverage! Stay safe and feel free to like my weather page
“Forecaster Darius Mack” or follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx

 

NEW BLOG POST

Hello Everyone on this warm and windy Sunday afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts, because it’s going to be very wet the next several days as we anticipate rounds of heavy downpours and storms moving into the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Mississippi river valley under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. These storms will come in sequence, and several potential factors are:
-Heavy Rainfall(Flash Flooding)
-Strong Damaging Winds(Power Outages)
– Large Hail

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The latest trends and discussions suggest a pretty intense dynamic storm system enveloped over Kentucky and Tennessee, which is why right now would be the appropriate time to purchase a NOAA weather radio and devise a Severe weather plan with your family.

Here is a look at the latest model runs, Late tonight and early tomorrow morning we could see the first round of storms moving in, they will be strong but most likely not severe, the big picture, shows that the main event looks to arrive Monday evening(3-5PM) and impact the early morning hours on your Tuesday(2AM-8AM)…

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I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, I will be informing you and alerting you on the severe weather situation, along with my colleagues on this link: https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

NEW BLOG POST

Hello! I haven’t posted on my blog in a while. Simply because there has really been nothing to talk about the past several days, So here is just an updated post just catch up on a few things. Today we’ve felt a weak cold front roll through the region, but by tomorrow things look to recover back into the 70s. Much nicer weather in store for your weekend! Here is a look at your Updated 7 Day Forecast:

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Tracking a potential for a few showers and maybe even some thunder action by early Friday morning. Nothing severe is expected, but rain is on it’s way, and it will clear out rather quickly. That’s a look at your updated Forecast! Have a Great Day!

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Enjoy your Full Week of Spring!

Good morning to you everyone, i’m doing a brief blog post this morning along with your updated 7 day forecast. Today’s highs are in the mid 60s, tomorrow we’ll top near the 70s. but we all know rain will likely come and spoil all the fun.:(