cold

Light Snow Likely Today Through Tuesday

10:40  am 01/15/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Happy MLK Day! We had some light snow showers move through parts of central and eastern Kentucky last night, it did put down atleast a quarter to a half inch on top of what we’ve already had. Places in extreme Northern Kentucky have already seen atleast an inch of snow from last night’s showers. No matter how much snow you got this did create some slick spots this morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as more snow is expected later today and throughout Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Today’s highs could peak at or around the freezing mark before the front moves in.

GFS snowcast

Here is a look at some model runs.

The European run is more aggressive putting 2″-5″ snow potential through the state. *NOT A FORECAST* This is used as guidance.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

The Hi-Res Nam shows 1″-2″ of snow.

NAM snow totals

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow Output, WxBell

It’s with last night’s light snow disturbance , that has increased my confidence that we could see atleast an inch or two of snow out of this swath that will set-up from northwest to southeast. Yes, the last forecast was overdone, but I think I have a better handle on this one since this will likely be an ALL SNOW event.

First Shot at snow

The School Watch Meter Remains a 5 out of 11

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I will tweet and post Radar Updates through the day!

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Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Mid April Chill, and Garden Alert #KYWX

10:00 PM 04/22/15 Posted by Darius Mack

Good evening gang, we’ve had a break from the rain as it moved out this morning, i’ll say its been decent overall. Tonight, lets say cool and refreshing, tommorow night may be a different story and i’ll show you what i’m talking about.

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Thursday night’s temperatures indicate possible subfreezing temps and some spots below freezing, courtesy of a northwest flow of air. A frost Advisory is in effect for the area through 8AM Thursday,Which means we’ll have to watch out for Frost, a frost advisory is suspected for tommorow night as well. I have some friends who have backyard gardens, the best thing you want to do is take those plants inside to prevent damage.

temptrac 1

Also, if you have any pets make sure they are not out for long periods of time that morning, we’re not talking subzero temps, but its been a while since our skin felt 32 degrees, so please be considerate of your pets! I’m also watching out for a similar cold pattern early next week, be sure to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx for the latest!

Stay safe and take care! 😉

Winter Weather Advisories and the SCHOOL WATCH METER(S) #KYWX

Posted at 12:50PM February 17,2015. by Darius Mack

We’ve hit mid February, and we’ve also hit an active pattern in the coming days. Many are enjoying their Snow Days, with snow, I mean alot of snow, how much snow did we all get? In Kentucky snow totals ranged anywhere from 7-16″. This marks an historical winter event, we’ve really hadn’t had a snow like this since somewhere in  the 1990s. Now, let’s switch to whats coming up ahead..

More snow its on its way and it may come in bands of heavy snow early Wednesday morning, and it does have the likelihood of adding extra accumulation to what you already have on the ground. This isn’t good news for road crews and for those who have to travel to work in the morning, but maybe good news for students who don’t want to go to school. NAM shows a quick moving band of snow swinging west to east. The time window to watch for is around 4-7 AM. Many may wake up to heavy falling snow and reduced visibility. Since temps won’t get close or even go above the freezing mark, anything that will fall at this point, will likely stick. Dry air is in place now, but once that swath of snow moves in, it will saturate the air pretty quickly. Anyone can expect a general 1-2″ on top of what you have by tomorrow morning, some may see locally higher amounts.

NAM model runs Wednesday   snowfall potential Wednesday

That’s not the only big story, temps will drop to subzero by Wednesday morning, and then they will continue to drop to the negative double digits by early Thursday morning. Yep, I said it. You can check the latest 7 day forecast.

7 day ff13

Our area is under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight through 7PM EST Wednesday.

winter weather advisories

And this is a first, Here is your 3 Day School Watch Meters. School officials may shut school down for the rest of the week. Although my confidence is a little lower on Friday, we”ll just have to see.

3 day school watch meter

Stay safe and enjoy your super-extended weekend! 😉

Monitoring Changes in our Weather.

December 6th, 2014 [Posted at 10:25 PM EST]

By Darius Mack

Haven’t updated the blog in a while, that’s because I’ve been closely monitoring a warming trend hitting us early this December. Now the question, or assumption may be that our winter has already came and gone. Nope, in fact winter doesn’t start until Dec 21-22nd. We’ve felt the effects of winter weather, but don’t worry the feel of winter will certainly return. We just have to wait and watch. Something that’s been staying steady near the Gulf of Alaska is this photogenic Low pressure system, it’s picking up very well on the wind graphic below. Also shout out to a friend that introduced me to this website, its awesome!

nullschool wnd map

Courtesy of earth.nullschool.net

Now I’m going to walk you through on what to anticipate for the next week and a half.

Next Tuesday-Wednesday, that Jet stream will dig into the Midwest, planting a powerful cold front along with it, and several light snow showers and flurries could clip the central and eastern zones of the bluegrass, not to mention, a familiar set up for the east coast, mostly rain for coastal areas, snow could move in on the western edge of it.

Snow chance next Tuesday

Fast forward to Friday December 12th-15th, A ridge of high pressure settles in which could once again stall the cold and snows, as of the later half of next week, another mild and wet pattern returns, just to set us up for an Arctic block of cold air, set to take aim at the commonwealth in the later part of December, as well as the potential for a stormy set throughout late December and the early part of January.

low in gulf of alaska

Now… I’m not making any promises on the exacting of the return of the heavy snows and cold, but it’s something that I’m monitoring.

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Winter Tackles Once Again

WINTER TACKLES US AGAIN!

Good Tuesday evening everyone, it’s been a while since you’ve seen me active on the blog, that’s because there wasn’t much of any active stuff out there. Those of you who thought to unbuckle the seatbelt and think that we have fully arrived to our destination, you might want to put it back on, because we only made a pit-stop. Today highs are in the 70s, tomorrow will be a different story as we anticipate a 25-30+ degree temperature crash. Just think, in 24-36hours we will be sitting in the low 30s, and then later on in the teens by early Thursday morning. That’s all associated with rain and snow pivoting it’s way in across the Ohio River Valley. It’s going to get very bumpy throughout this ride, tomorrow morning temps will sit in the upper 50s, you’ll still need to carry your jacket, temps will continue to drop throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
Scattered showers move in around roughly 8 or 9 tomorrow morning, around Noon-2pm several spots will be void of some of the rain, doesn’t mean your are threw, more kicks back in around 3pm, and this time the actual front will move through our area, allowing temps to drop even further….

Look at what our models are picking up on around 5PM……
There will be a wide range of temps, parts of Kentucky could be near 60s, while other parts will be in the 30s. This looks very wild to me in terms of temperatures. Rainy, and a cooler surge of air moves in West to East.

Image

 

Thus, 8pm…..Maybe a little wintry action could show up across the land. Not very pretty, enough to cause a few slick spots ,so eating out may not be a good plan, but I must say that we shouldn’t anticipate much of any accumulating snows.

8-9PM, a “finger” or” thumb” or a light swath of snow moves in….temps hovering around 30 degrees.

Image

 

Lastly, any of that left over snow punches eastward, and should all drive out around early Thursday morning, more like Super early Thursday Morning.(3AM)

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I really didn’t think I had to post a snowfall potential map, any general areas can expect at least a half an inch of snow, a localized inch is certainly possible. 2 inches of snow is the limit in this range, doesn’t mean that everyone will get 2 inches of snow.

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SO…. what is the SCHOOL WATCH METER for Thursday, it does not look like a promising SNOWDAY, however delays cannot be ruled out. Your School Watch meter is at a Low 4.

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-Forecaster Darius Mack