arctic

Tracking Snow Tuesday #KYWX

10:30p 01/11

Good evening, many were anticipating snow this weekend, and did see the first measurable snowfall. Tonight I’m watching the chances of seeing our first measurable snowfall greater than an inch. First of all, the National Weather Service in Louisville has confidence that several areas tomorrow morning will get some intense snows, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for most of the area.Winter Weather Advisory.jpg

 

Now… Let’s talk about the set-up.  Hi-Res NAM shows some hitching snow bands moving into the area Thursday morning, mostly light snow, but you may experience periods of heavy snow at times. Several of these heavier bands of snow could put down an extra quick half inch to an inch of snow on top of the accumulating light snow. The front will also bring gusts of about 30-40 mph, which could cause near whiteout conditions on the roads. School closings and delays are likely to more across central and northern Kentucky.

HiResNam Tuesday

 

Accumulations… It’s a very tricky forecast to grip, Snowfall ratios are around 5 to 1, which means that 1 in of rainfall would be equivalent to 5 inches of snow. Also, these bands will be isolated bands of heavy now, which makes it harder for models to pick where the most snow will fall. The latest NAM total precip shows the general areas that could anticipate more accumulation than others. With the potential water to snow equivalent, several spots could anticipate upwards to about 2” of snow.

Nam Accum Tuesday.jpg

 

However, the GFS pushes the heavier totals more to the north.

GFS accumulation Tuesday

 

With that being said, I’m sticking with my forecast of 1-2” generally for the area. Could some get an impressive 3”? Possibly so. Areas south of I-64 can anticipate a coating-1”.

last shot at snow Tuesday

Also, the snow isn’t the only concern. Wind Chill readings are expected to be in the single digits and lower teens.

Scott County Schools, i’m giving a 7/11 on the Snowday chance tomorrow. Tuesday's School Watch Meter.jpg

 

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Latest School Watch Meter #KYWX

Posted at 8:55PM February 11,2015 by Darius Mack

Good late evening gang, earlier i’ve mentioned snow and cold in the forecast. A rush of COLD makes its way in early tomorrow morning as rounds of snow bursts swings in behind it. My thoughts concerning snow accumulations has not changed.

First shot at Snow Thursday

Now, bursts of snow factored in with a very potent rush of cold air is not something everyone is a fan of. The European model puts us around 10-14 degrees, and some may be in the single digits, since it will be windy it will feel even cooler. GFS puts windchill values ranging anywhere from -4 to 5 degrees.

European Model temps Thursday morning

If you’re wanting a Snow Day, you might get one, the bigger story will be how cold it gets, despite the rounds of snow that swing through throughout your day on Thursday.

The School Watch Meter puts a MODERATE chance for a Snow Day, not everyone will see a cancellation, and not everyone will see a delay. I will be tracking the latest early tomorrow morning. 😉

Thursday School Watch Meter