Accumulations

Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

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I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

lapse rates.jpg

College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

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Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

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Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday and the School Watch Meter

10:00 PM 01/18

It’s a very brisk MLK Jr Day, highs only made it into the upper teens, the daytime high in Lexington was 19 degrees, barely hit 20, however windchills hovered anywhere around 0 to 5 degrees this afternoon. We’re stuck with this cold tomorrow as well as highs are only expected to reach the low 20s.

Now on to Wednesday, a snow moves in Wednesday morning, and at this point it is likely that several spots could see a couple of inches,  especially for those across southern Kentucky .  Snowfall ratios will be near 8:1, thanks to a very cold ground set by this Arctic cold, and temperatures that morning will be in the upper teens and lower 20s. Here is my first shot at snow. First Shot at snow.jpg

 

Now a Snowday comes into question, and as a former Scott County student, I always loved to see snow in the forecast, because that meant a possible delay or closing.School teachers and staff, I know the ‘talk of the town ‘ will be Wednesday morning’s snow. So here’s just a run-down of what i’m seeing

  1. Snow arrives around 5-8 am Wednesday morning, roads will remain will below freezing, any snow that falls will stick.
  2. There may be some heavy periods of snow at times which could limit visibility.
  3. Though we aren’t getting the MOST  out of this, regardless,  accumulating snow is conducive to deteriorating road conditions,
  4. Most School systems either Delay or Close school in these type of events, but it’s not my call, its the Superintendent’s.
  5. I will have gain confidence on whether or not there’s a school closing tomorrow, so check back with me.
So for that, I’m giving Scott County Students a MODERATE  chance for a Snowday on Wednesday.
Wednesday School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Crashing Temps next week, and possibly snow? #KYWX

8:00PM November 5, 2014

Hope you have had a great day! You guys know me, like I said last week, I’ve entered the snow hype train. While I was composing my usual week outlook, I stumped upon next week.
I’ve messaged several of my friends and there has been a consensus that by the later part of next week, we could see some good snow chances . Here is the latest from the GFS runs by next Thursday. The blue line indicates the Freezing Rain/Snow line.

gfs next thursday snow hype train

BUT..
We always have to consider that this forecast is a week  away, so the validity of this is low, one thing for sure is that these temps will definitely drop. If these models stay consistent, I may pick back up on this next Tuesday.

COD WEATHER  Numerical Models

COD WEATHER Numerical Models

Which brings me to this concern.
Make sure that you are getting weather information from a credible and reliable weather source, reliability is an important thing to have especially when we are approaching closer to the winter season.
Have a safe night!