Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Latest Snow Thoughts.

11:55p 02/13/16

Good Late Saturday evening! Many are still out late this Saturday evening with their special Valentine on this Valentine’s day eve. Meanwhile, i’m sitting here watching  the latest concerning the snow that moves in.  How about some of that extra sugar on your Valentines day? (And By Sugar, I mean Snow ;))

preliminary snow thoughts.jpg

I have moved numbers around switched around the capes on your snowfall forecast. 2″-6″ of snow expected across the state. I’ll have more updates tomorrow, follow me @dariusmack_wx on twitter !

 

Tracking a possible Snow Threat..

4:00pm 02/13/16

Good Saturday Afternoon! I’m going to talk through with you about what we’re expecting for the next couple of days. First off, friends and neighbors have been asking me about this snow system expected to impact the area, well.. here are my thoughts

Sunday afternoon into Monday snow will swivel from northwest to southeast, along with that, a strengthening southern flow of warmer saturated air , and looks likely to bring some heavy snow for most of the bluegrass. This particular parameter shows the potential lifting, this system has. Notice the “tounge” is coming in from the south, which indicates that there is energy to work with in the atmosphere, just enough to cause heavy banding of snow.

Theta-E Nam Monday morning

NAM 12X 850mb Theta-E, College of DuPage Wx

 

Now I’m going to give you a run through on the timing of this .

Newest runs suggest the timing of the snow moves in Northwest to Southeast from 7-10 am. This is from the NAM.. Notice by Sunday evening, the entire state is covered with snow, and it will be a battle between the warmer and colder air to determine whether or not several areas will see mixing.

11AM Sunday snow

Simulated Reflectivity, precip types, pivotalweather.com

 

7pm Sunday snow.jpg

NAM Simulated Reflectivity Precip Types, pivotalweather.com

 

 

The NAM is also showing interesting snowfall totals across the region.

Nam Snowfall output

NAM total snow accumulation, pivotalweather.com

 

With that being said, here are my first thoughts on the snow Sunday through Monday.

preliminary snow thoughts

This could very well change, check back with me later tonight to see if my thoughts stay the same!

Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

bwg_None_anim.gif

 

I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

lapse rates.jpg

College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

winter weather advisories.jpg

Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

8:30P 02/01

It’s been an exceptionally pleasant weekend, today also wasn’t too bad despite the morning showers. If you haven’t been outside already, you’ve wasted your time, that being said. I’m watching potent weather arriving here tomorrow.

SPC outlook 2(2)

SPC Preliminary Severe Weather Threat, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky

 

 

Last update, you remember me touching base on this, and it’s likely that tomorrow winds and heavy rain will rough us up a bit. The Storm Prediction Center highlights most the Mississippi valley under some type of risk for severe weather tomorrow. The city of Lexington is under a Slight risk of severe weather, the cities of Bowling Green and Louisville are under an Enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary threat is damaging winds, and you can’t rule out the chance for possible spin up tornadoes.

ECWMWF highs

ECMWF MAX-TEMPS, WxBell

 

Not to mention, tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 60s to possibly even 70.

There is no doubt about the severe weather potential that we have:

 

  1. We have a convergence of warmth surging in from the southwest.
  2. Significant daytime heating for this time of year, (temps around 65 degrees).
  3. Increasing surface temps will also increase lifting in the air.
  4. Behind that, cooler air on tap.
HiRes-Model-run

NAM 4KM Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

The WxBell HiRes Nam shows that some showers may start as early as 7 or 8 am, that won’t be the thing to worry about. The bigger threat arrives around 5-7pm, storms will push in from the southwest and track towards the north- east. Gusts are expected to be around 40-50+mph.

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, and feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx where I will be updating you on the latest weather situations

Just How Warm are we going to get?

11:15 AM  01/29 Good Friday morning! I’m going to be brief because I have to get back to my homework, I’m posting about this because I feel like its worth sharing. Starting  tomorrow and into early next week a dramatic spike in temperatures are expected.

The EURO,( which is really good on picking up temp trends) is showing some extreme warmth set up for Kentucky, especially for this time of year.

Saturday: The Euro is putting highs in the mid 50s for the area, not to mention we’ll have pleasant conditions as well..

euro highs

ECMWF Surface Temps Saturday, WxBell

Sunday and Monday highs will stay in the 50s, rain showers arrive Sunday evening, and exit by Monday afternoon.

 

Now on to  Tuesday. Tuesday evening temps could be well into the 60s. The Euro shows a high-budget temperature wise, putting highs in the upper 60s near 70..

Tuesday highs euro

ECMWF Surface Temps Tuesday, WxBell

 

BUT.. The Canadian and GFS are putting highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. quite opposed to the upper 60s. I think there’s a good shot at us reaching the mid 60s.

However, one thing they all agree with is a system bringing a whole lot of wind and rain late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Followed by a  sharp crash in temps, by Wednesday afternoon temps could be in the low 30s, and thing is, we’re not done yet.

A push of Arctic air continues to move through the Midwest, and  there is a possibility that next Friday’s highs could be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

gfs Vort Friday

GFS 500 VORT, WxBell.

 

I’ll keep you posted, enjoy your weekend! 🙂

Snow Arrives, Last Shot at Snow.

9:40 am 01/22

Good Friday morning, the snow has arrived and is falling across much of the state. As the snow presses in northbound , its takin time moistening up the atmosphere, northern zones will see the lower totals because the air is relatively “crisper” the places with the most saturated air are areas across southern and central Kentucky, which means the bigger flakes right now are south of I-64. Much of the precip there has already shifted to snow, and with that in mind, higher snow totals can be anticipated around the Bowling Green area. Here is my Last and Final shot at snow for this winter storm.

bwg_None_anim.gif last shot at snow.jpg

Increasing High Impact Snow Storm

11:55 a 01/21

Models continue to show crippling snow totals statewide, so here is my latest shot at snow, Anywhere ranging from from 6″-14+”  expected across the state. My Latest shot at snow shows  a general 8″-12″ expected across central Kentucky. (Note: I’m being conservative with these numbers) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the sate. Prepare for significant crippling snows across the region.

winter storm warning ff last shot at snow

Cripling Snow Headed Our Way

1/20  11:20p

Good late evening, confidence on widespread accumulating snow has increased, we are just a little over 24 hours away from the expected winter storm. I also want to make a pointer, earlier call was quite conservative with numbers, this second bite is also pretty conservative with snow totals. Anywhere from 6″-14″ expected across central and eastern Kentucky. Not to mention, mixing in southern Kentucky could put down a layer of ice, below the accumulating snow. Here is what i’m thinking now, changes will be made tomorrow afternoon.

Second shot at snow

Winter Storm Threat Friday

2:20 p 01/20

Good Afternoon! Snow showers continue for parts of eastern Kentucky, many school closings across the state, this may not be the only time this week we see schools shut down statewide. And here’s why:

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for the area, that’s not for today, but for Thursday night and into Friday. Now to see if it will upgrade to a warning. Winter Storm Watch.jpg

 

Snow/Mix arrives late Thursday night and early Friday morning for southern zones, then transitions to all snow for the area Friday afternoon. NAM-run-1.gifHere is what I’m thinking so far on snow totals.. Check with me tomorrow afternoon to see  if my thoughts remain the same. Stay Safe!

First Shot at snow.jpg