Severe Weather Risk

6:27p 02/28
Good afternoon, the rain has been a nuisance, and we’re not seeing any improvements. In fact, there is a Severe weather threat for much of the area. The Storm Prediction center has placed an Enhanced risk over all of central and eastern Kentucky. Storms will push through the area overnight and through the early morning hours. They will come in a series of waves throughout Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. The key threat is damaging wind, although the models aren’t showing the strength of these storms very well, keep in mind the wind threat is very high, and with the motion of these storms, it indicates that there will be directional shear, which is conducive to tornadoes.*The tornado threat isn’t as high as the damaging wind threat* Don’t be alarmed, but stay vigilant. I’ll keep you posted!

-Darius Mack

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Snow Update

3:54PM January 5, 2017

The snow has arrived and it continues to snow lightly. Radar is showing the snow filtering in from the west. The darker contours indicate periods of heavier snow, that’s something to watch as the evening wears on. A general 1″-3″ is expected.

bwg_None_anim (1).gif

 

Today there were already school closings and for some that went, early dismissals.

With that being said. Lets see how the roads are:

current_i75newt

I-75 Newtown Pike

current_i64ccwb

Clark County I-64  West Bound

current_i75manw

I-75 Man O’ War

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

The school watch Meter still stands at an 8 out of 11 for Friday!

school-watch-meter-friday

Tracking Snow Chances

11:30AM  January 4,2017

Happy New Year! Winter has arrived and despite Kentucky weather’s Spring-like escapades, we’re always reminded that Winter is still upon us. For the last two days its been dreary and in the 60s. Today, bare cold and frigid weather is filtering into the region. But lets be hopeful, if you feel like you’re missing out on the snow this season, there’s a good chance we get our first accumulating snowfall later this week, in fact, soon!

 

Tomorrow, I’m tracking a snowmaker that will usher through in waves. The track and chances of this snow system has been consistent over the past couple of days, it’s not going to be a shutdown snow, but it is just enough snow to be noticed. As you can see from the NAM run, the snow moves in as early as Thursday morning. However, keep in mind that the snow must tackle some of the dry air we have place now. So, it’s likely we’ll start off with just a couple of flakes falling from the sky. Don’t anticipate an immediate “snow down” once the first flakes arrive. I’ll say around 10am-the afternoon and evening, we’ll see some moderate and even heavier bands of snow that could put down a couple of inches in some spots.

nam-model-runs

NAM MODEL RUNS-PIVOTALWEATHER

 

In terms of accumulation, NAM is putting the I-64 corridor around the 1”-3” for accumulating snow. *NOTE This goes from Thursday through Friday morning.

snowfall-accumulation-fri

NAM SNOWFALL -PIVOTALWEATHER

 

Here’s my initial thoughts on the expected snowfall…

snow-potential

So kids, Snow day tomorrow? Not likely, I think there’s a better chance for school closings Friday.

School watch meter Thursday.jpg school-watch-meter-friday

I’ll keep you posted! 😉

 

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Latest Snow Thoughts.

11:55p 02/13/16

Good Late Saturday evening! Many are still out late this Saturday evening with their special Valentine on this Valentine’s day eve. Meanwhile, i’m sitting here watching  the latest concerning the snow that moves in.  How about some of that extra sugar on your Valentines day? (And By Sugar, I mean Snow ;))

preliminary snow thoughts.jpg

I have moved numbers around switched around the capes on your snowfall forecast. 2″-6″ of snow expected across the state. I’ll have more updates tomorrow, follow me @dariusmack_wx on twitter !

 

Tracking a possible Snow Threat..

4:00pm 02/13/16

Good Saturday Afternoon! I’m going to talk through with you about what we’re expecting for the next couple of days. First off, friends and neighbors have been asking me about this snow system expected to impact the area, well.. here are my thoughts

Sunday afternoon into Monday snow will swivel from northwest to southeast, along with that, a strengthening southern flow of warmer saturated air , and looks likely to bring some heavy snow for most of the bluegrass. This particular parameter shows the potential lifting, this system has. Notice the “tounge” is coming in from the south, which indicates that there is energy to work with in the atmosphere, just enough to cause heavy banding of snow.

Theta-E Nam Monday morning

NAM 12X 850mb Theta-E, College of DuPage Wx

 

Now I’m going to give you a run through on the timing of this .

Newest runs suggest the timing of the snow moves in Northwest to Southeast from 7-10 am. This is from the NAM.. Notice by Sunday evening, the entire state is covered with snow, and it will be a battle between the warmer and colder air to determine whether or not several areas will see mixing.

11AM Sunday snow

Simulated Reflectivity, precip types, pivotalweather.com

 

7pm Sunday snow.jpg

NAM Simulated Reflectivity Precip Types, pivotalweather.com

 

 

The NAM is also showing interesting snowfall totals across the region.

Nam Snowfall output

NAM total snow accumulation, pivotalweather.com

 

With that being said, here are my first thoughts on the snow Sunday through Monday.

preliminary snow thoughts

This could very well change, check back with me later tonight to see if my thoughts stay the same!