weekend’cold

Cold and Snow This Weekend

10:35 am 03/10/17

Good Friday Morning everyone! Well, the weekend is just about here and it comes with cold and snow. Yes, snow is in the forecast. First off, I want to go ahead and point out that there is a FREEZE warning in place for everybody in Kentucky. That goes through tonight and early Saturday morning.  That means that any tender vegetation that’s growing ahead of schedule is susceptible to damage.

Freeze Warning

Now.. What should we expect within the next 24 hours…

NAM-Weekend-Snow

Latest model runs suggest that places south will get the biggest impact from the snow. The NAM model run hints at heavy wet snow moving through south western Kentucky and into Tennessee. Here in our area, we can generally expect just some light snow showers that will just put down some minor accumulations.  Overall, timing of snow is through the day on Saturday, I’m not anticipating anything significant.

 

I made just a short graphic on what the expectations of snow should be this weekend.

My confidence on even seeing an inch of snow is low.

What to Expect this weekend

The next thing I’m watching is a system that will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning, that seems to have a better chance on seeing accumulating snows. I’ll keep you posted!

*ALSO: Daylight Savings Time Begins March 12TH AT 2AM. Be sure to move clocks AHEAD 1 hour Saturday night!

 

Try to stay warm this weekend!

 

Tracking Snow Tuesday #KYWX

10:30p 01/11

Good evening, many were anticipating snow this weekend, and did see the first measurable snowfall. Tonight I’m watching the chances of seeing our first measurable snowfall greater than an inch. First of all, the National Weather Service in Louisville has confidence that several areas tomorrow morning will get some intense snows, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for most of the area.Winter Weather Advisory.jpg

 

Now… Let’s talk about the set-up.  Hi-Res NAM shows some hitching snow bands moving into the area Thursday morning, mostly light snow, but you may experience periods of heavy snow at times. Several of these heavier bands of snow could put down an extra quick half inch to an inch of snow on top of the accumulating light snow. The front will also bring gusts of about 30-40 mph, which could cause near whiteout conditions on the roads. School closings and delays are likely to more across central and northern Kentucky.

HiResNam Tuesday

 

Accumulations… It’s a very tricky forecast to grip, Snowfall ratios are around 5 to 1, which means that 1 in of rainfall would be equivalent to 5 inches of snow. Also, these bands will be isolated bands of heavy now, which makes it harder for models to pick where the most snow will fall. The latest NAM total precip shows the general areas that could anticipate more accumulation than others. With the potential water to snow equivalent, several spots could anticipate upwards to about 2” of snow.

Nam Accum Tuesday.jpg

 

However, the GFS pushes the heavier totals more to the north.

GFS accumulation Tuesday

 

With that being said, I’m sticking with my forecast of 1-2” generally for the area. Could some get an impressive 3”? Possibly so. Areas south of I-64 can anticipate a coating-1”.

last shot at snow Tuesday

Also, the snow isn’t the only concern. Wind Chill readings are expected to be in the single digits and lower teens.

Scott County Schools, i’m giving a 7/11 on the Snowday chance tomorrow. Tuesday's School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Will Winter Show up this weekend? #kywx

9:10 PM October 28, 2014

I haven’t done a blog post in a short while, but I’m here to share with you something that’s trending this week in the weather community. I think I have officially entered the SNOW Hype Train! Unfortunately, as much as these models are showing an aggressive wintry tease. The other thing to mention is how cool will those temperatures be when the precipitation moves in? ; Temps will be around the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is cold, but maybe not cold enough to bringing some accumulated snow. Another thing to consider is the amount of moisture in the air , If there is enough saturation, which will aid in vertical cooling, once that rain hit’s a thin ice layer, it could put down a wintry mix. But like I said ground temps will be warm enough for it not to accumulate. And most likely we could be dealing with just plain ole’ rain showers.
Below is the GFS models, which show a lot of precipitation with it. I also drew the front to give you a general idea of where the front will be on Friday evening.. Chances are, the majority of us will deal with a very wet and brisk Halloween evening.models this friday cold front Friday

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, I’ll have more updates throughout the week!