kentucky

Father’s Day Storms

  • 1:10 AM 06/18/2017  By Darius Mack

Well if you’re like me, you’ve been taking advantage of this amazing weather for the past couple of days. Despite the heat and humidity today, it was a good evening to hang around and “chill” outside for a bit. However, I’m talking big changes coming later on your Father’s Day Sunday. You might not be able to play those whole 18 holes tomorrow however you may get a chance at putting a few holes if you’re out a little earlier in the day.  A cold front is expected to move from the northwest into the southeast, and will likely bring some high winds and heavy rain with it. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok has put out a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for all of the Bluegrass state.

SPC outlook Sunday

 

The timing is mainly in the afternoon, can’t really rule out a stray shower or storm chance earlier in the morning as dew points will already be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The GREATEST chance will come after about 2PM Sunday afternoon. That’s when you should anticipate more of a widespread weather event. According to NAM, the first round will move in around 2-4pm, and another round possibly late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

NAM-run-Sunday

Be sure to stay vigilant of any changing weather conditions, overall, I’m not anticipating a total severe weather outbreak, just stay vigilant as we could see several severe warned storms across the state.

Cold and Snow This Weekend

10:35 am 03/10/17

Good Friday Morning everyone! Well, the weekend is just about here and it comes with cold and snow. Yes, snow is in the forecast. First off, I want to go ahead and point out that there is a FREEZE warning in place for everybody in Kentucky. That goes through tonight and early Saturday morning.  That means that any tender vegetation that’s growing ahead of schedule is susceptible to damage.

Freeze Warning

Now.. What should we expect within the next 24 hours…

NAM-Weekend-Snow

Latest model runs suggest that places south will get the biggest impact from the snow. The NAM model run hints at heavy wet snow moving through south western Kentucky and into Tennessee. Here in our area, we can generally expect just some light snow showers that will just put down some minor accumulations.  Overall, timing of snow is through the day on Saturday, I’m not anticipating anything significant.

 

I made just a short graphic on what the expectations of snow should be this weekend.

My confidence on even seeing an inch of snow is low.

What to Expect this weekend

The next thing I’m watching is a system that will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning, that seems to have a better chance on seeing accumulating snows. I’ll keep you posted!

*ALSO: Daylight Savings Time Begins March 12TH AT 2AM. Be sure to move clocks AHEAD 1 hour Saturday night!

 

Try to stay warm this weekend!

 

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Tracking a possible Snow Threat..

4:00pm 02/13/16

Good Saturday Afternoon! I’m going to talk through with you about what we’re expecting for the next couple of days. First off, friends and neighbors have been asking me about this snow system expected to impact the area, well.. here are my thoughts

Sunday afternoon into Monday snow will swivel from northwest to southeast, along with that, a strengthening southern flow of warmer saturated air , and looks likely to bring some heavy snow for most of the bluegrass. This particular parameter shows the potential lifting, this system has. Notice the “tounge” is coming in from the south, which indicates that there is energy to work with in the atmosphere, just enough to cause heavy banding of snow.

Theta-E Nam Monday morning

NAM 12X 850mb Theta-E, College of DuPage Wx

 

Now I’m going to give you a run through on the timing of this .

Newest runs suggest the timing of the snow moves in Northwest to Southeast from 7-10 am. This is from the NAM.. Notice by Sunday evening, the entire state is covered with snow, and it will be a battle between the warmer and colder air to determine whether or not several areas will see mixing.

11AM Sunday snow

Simulated Reflectivity, precip types, pivotalweather.com

 

7pm Sunday snow.jpg

NAM Simulated Reflectivity Precip Types, pivotalweather.com

 

 

The NAM is also showing interesting snowfall totals across the region.

Nam Snowfall output

NAM total snow accumulation, pivotalweather.com

 

With that being said, here are my first thoughts on the snow Sunday through Monday.

preliminary snow thoughts

This could very well change, check back with me later tonight to see if my thoughts stay the same!

Tracking Snow and the School Watch Meter.

6:05PM 02/28/16

Good Monday evening! Snow showers are taking over of the region, not to mention the increasing instability. Here is what I’m tracking soo far…

bwg_None_anim.gif

 

I’m also hearing reports of thunder snow out of this, which wouldn’t surprise me considering the steep lapse rates, which indicates that the air is very unstable. Similar to what you would see on a springtime forecast for thunderstorms, except, this is snow. With rates like these, Its possible we could see “Thundersnow”, in which I’m already hearing reports of in parts of central Kentucky.

lapse rates.jpg

College of DuPage, Low- Level Lapse Rates

 

 

The series of light to moderate and even heavy periods of snow will continue, I think the best chance for accumulating snow is overnight and through your Tuesday as temps drop into the 20s. The GFS snowfall accumulation forecast suggests the possibility of 1”-2” of snow generally for most of Central Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall ratios expected around 10 to 1.

GFS snowcast

WxBell’s GFS Snowfall Accumulation Tuesday

 

 

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the area and continues through Tuesday evening.

winter weather advisories.jpg

Alerts Foot’s Forecast| Central Kentucky, Facebook

 

 

Scott County Students, I know the real question is whether or not you’ll get a snowday. While there is still impending winter weather expected, I’m hesitant on saying you have a HIGH chance for a Snowday, however I think you have a GREATER chance for a delay.       

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

School Watch Meter

 

          Overnight- early tomorrow morning snow showers move through with reduced visibilities causing hazardous travel. BUT, it all depends on the efficiency of the road crews; how well they are able to treat the roads allowing school systems to assess whether or not to cancel or remain on the delayed schedule.

          You’re not getting the full 1”-2” at once, however some areas could see a half- inch to an inch  of snow during the morning drive. It’s going to accumulate throughout the day giving road crews time to continuously treat the roads.

 

With that being Said… Tuesday’s School Watch Meter is at a 6 out of 11 chance for a Snowday. I also want to put out a disclaimer, I’m not in charge of closing the schools, if they do decide to close, I think it would be safer for them to do so…. Have a safe night and enjoy the extra sleep! 🙂

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

8:30P 02/01

It’s been an exceptionally pleasant weekend, today also wasn’t too bad despite the morning showers. If you haven’t been outside already, you’ve wasted your time, that being said. I’m watching potent weather arriving here tomorrow.

SPC outlook 2(2)

SPC Preliminary Severe Weather Threat, Foot’s Forecast | Central Kentucky

 

 

Last update, you remember me touching base on this, and it’s likely that tomorrow winds and heavy rain will rough us up a bit. The Storm Prediction Center highlights most the Mississippi valley under some type of risk for severe weather tomorrow. The city of Lexington is under a Slight risk of severe weather, the cities of Bowling Green and Louisville are under an Enhanced risk of severe weather. The primary threat is damaging winds, and you can’t rule out the chance for possible spin up tornadoes.

ECWMWF highs

ECMWF MAX-TEMPS, WxBell

 

Not to mention, tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 60s to possibly even 70.

There is no doubt about the severe weather potential that we have:

 

  1. We have a convergence of warmth surging in from the southwest.
  2. Significant daytime heating for this time of year, (temps around 65 degrees).
  3. Increasing surface temps will also increase lifting in the air.
  4. Behind that, cooler air on tap.
HiRes-Model-run

NAM 4KM Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

The WxBell HiRes Nam shows that some showers may start as early as 7 or 8 am, that won’t be the thing to worry about. The bigger threat arrives around 5-7pm, storms will push in from the southwest and track towards the north- east. Gusts are expected to be around 40-50+mph.

 

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, and feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx where I will be updating you on the latest weather situations