kentucky

Late Week Winter Storm Threat

11:00 PM EST

Published by Darius Mack

Good late evening! It’s a little bit past my bed-time and I have an early shift tomorrow so I’m going to keep it short and simple. For some time, the weather community has been closely watching the potential for a developing  winter storm. Rain arrives Thursday evening, and pretty much through your Friday. Temps will start in the 50s Friday morning but could crash into the upper teens and lower 20s by Friday evening, and with that, anything that falls could be in the form of sleet and snow.

Here is a snapshot of some of the model runs Friday evening. .

With the rain to sleet to snow transition ice accumulations are likely as well..

ICE TOTALS saturday

Now lets look at the snow potential.

The European shows a risk for accumulating snow throughout all of Kentucky. A general 3” possible for many.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

 

The NAM which has been very insane with the snow totals the past runs, have actually lowered their totals.. Yes I said lowered, and it still shows the potential for hefty snow totals through central Kentucky by Saturday morning.

NAM snow accumulation Saturday

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow, WxBell

 

What can we expect?

-Rain Late Thursday

-Rain Transitions to Freezing rain by Friday afternoon as early as about 2PM. As temps are crashing and at or around freezing.

-Widespread sleet/snow by Friday evening and through Saturday morning.

 

Could schools close on Friday in lieu of the expected forecast? It’s a possibility, but right now the School Watch meter is showing a Low to Moderate Threat for school closings.

School Watch Meter Friday

 

So thoughts on snow? I think significant accumulations are possible for the region. Since this is an early forecast, this will likely change, i could shift heavier totals further northwest or even bump up or lower totals. Still some room for error, it all depends on where the heavy axis of sleet/snow develops.

preliminary snow thoughts

I’ll keep you posted!

 

Also.. FYI A Winter Storm Watch is out for some parts of the bluegrass and could extend more eastward.

Winter Storm Watch
Advertisements

Nasty Winter Mess Late Weekend.

1:25PM 01.6.2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! Its been FRIGID, since we’ve started off each day this year in the single digits with subzero wind chills. All of that is about to change in the coming days. However, this weekend I’m tracking the arrival of a nasty weather system that will move through the region.

It’s something that I have kept watch for quite a while (aforementioned in my previous 7 day forecast) that Sunday and Monday look to be days that could bring a potential wintry mix. Here we are, almost 24 hours away from the forecast, and to be quite honest, I’m still having a hard time keying in on exactly who gets what and where.. But what I can tell you, is that EVERYONE has the potential of seeing all kinds of precipitation from rain to freezing rain/sleet and snow. Models have been honing in on the dicey winter set-up over much of the Ohio Valley for quite some time, this Arctic air has been holding on to us , and the question is, will it be strong enough to over-power the surge of ‘warmth’ coming from the south? Highs on Sunday could get into the mid to upper 30s and close to 40.

That’s the European forecast which generally has a good grasp on the temperature trends.

 

Sunday's high

ECMWF 0Z , WxBell

 

Here’s a look at the NAM expected highs, which you can see is running slightly cooler than the European. I think this one seems as a more likely high temp since temps by Sunday morning will start at about 10 degrees.

 

NAM sunday's highs

NAM 12Z, WxBell

 

 

Now lets look at the precipitation. This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because its hard to know exactly how much and what type of precipitation will be falling in some areas.

THE GFS run, which also pushes a little warmer than the NAM suggests a late mix with the transition to rain by Monday. But one thing is, temps will still hold to about 32-36 degrees, which is still a good window for any snow sleet and freezing rain. (I’ve seen wet snow fall at 35 degrees) so that’s something to keep in mind.  

 

GFS-WXBELL-Monday

GFS 00Z, WxBell

 

The NAM run shows a possible weak-wave moving in Sunday evening ahead of the main system. As you can see the pink indicates freezing rain and sleet and it keeps temps at bay of 32. Which is a textbook temp for any wintry precip.

 

NAM-sim-Radar-WXbell

NAM 12Z Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

So what are the key threats? I made a lovely graphic for you to see…

Winter threat index

*Freezing Rain-High

*Sleet- Moderate to High

*Wind- Moderate

*Snow- Moderate

Let’s talk about potential accumulations.

The European models shows the potential for atleast an inch of Snow by Monday afternoon. But notice how those totals are not widespread as opposed to the snow coverage north of the river.

 

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF (10:1) SnowDepth, WxBell

 

 

GFS even highlights to potential for localized 1” snow accumulations.

 

GFS snow ouptut

GFS Total Snow, Pivotal Weather

 

What about the Ice threat?

NAM suggests areas across central and eastern Kentucky will have a good layer of ice with the potential accumulated snow.

NAM ice forecast 

Here’s a more fine-tuned map that outlines the areas with the greatest potential for ice and snow.

Weekend Messy set-up

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂 

Father’s Day Storms

  • 1:10 AM 06/18/2017  By Darius Mack

Well if you’re like me, you’ve been taking advantage of this amazing weather for the past couple of days. Despite the heat and humidity today, it was a good evening to hang around and “chill” outside for a bit. However, I’m talking big changes coming later on your Father’s Day Sunday. You might not be able to play those whole 18 holes tomorrow however you may get a chance at putting a few holes if you’re out a little earlier in the day.  A cold front is expected to move from the northwest into the southeast, and will likely bring some high winds and heavy rain with it. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok has put out a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for all of the Bluegrass state.

SPC outlook Sunday

 

The timing is mainly in the afternoon, can’t really rule out a stray shower or storm chance earlier in the morning as dew points will already be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The GREATEST chance will come after about 2PM Sunday afternoon. That’s when you should anticipate more of a widespread weather event. According to NAM, the first round will move in around 2-4pm, and another round possibly late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

NAM-run-Sunday

Be sure to stay vigilant of any changing weather conditions, overall, I’m not anticipating a total severe weather outbreak, just stay vigilant as we could see several severe warned storms across the state.

Cold and Snow This Weekend

10:35 am 03/10/17

Good Friday Morning everyone! Well, the weekend is just about here and it comes with cold and snow. Yes, snow is in the forecast. First off, I want to go ahead and point out that there is a FREEZE warning in place for everybody in Kentucky. That goes through tonight and early Saturday morning.  That means that any tender vegetation that’s growing ahead of schedule is susceptible to damage.

Freeze Warning

Now.. What should we expect within the next 24 hours…

NAM-Weekend-Snow

Latest model runs suggest that places south will get the biggest impact from the snow. The NAM model run hints at heavy wet snow moving through south western Kentucky and into Tennessee. Here in our area, we can generally expect just some light snow showers that will just put down some minor accumulations.  Overall, timing of snow is through the day on Saturday, I’m not anticipating anything significant.

 

I made just a short graphic on what the expectations of snow should be this weekend.

My confidence on even seeing an inch of snow is low.

What to Expect this weekend

The next thing I’m watching is a system that will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning, that seems to have a better chance on seeing accumulating snows. I’ll keep you posted!

*ALSO: Daylight Savings Time Begins March 12TH AT 2AM. Be sure to move clocks AHEAD 1 hour Saturday night!

 

Try to stay warm this weekend!

 

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Updated Stab at Snow Totals

3:40p 02/14

Happy Valentines Day! Snow is working its way through the area, and there’s already reports of areas getting in with a few inches of snow soo far, especially in southern Kentucky, moderate to heavy bands of snow is moving through that area now, which has prompted me to update you on what i’m thinking soo far. I am HIGHLY confident that areas in southern and central Kentucky, including Bowling Green could get 5+” of snow. As for central Kentucky, 4″-6″ looks likely as well by Monday morning. Keep in mind the heavier totals are south of I-64.  Have a great evening and stay safe!

snow thoughts

 

Tracking a possible Snow Threat..

4:00pm 02/13/16

Good Saturday Afternoon! I’m going to talk through with you about what we’re expecting for the next couple of days. First off, friends and neighbors have been asking me about this snow system expected to impact the area, well.. here are my thoughts

Sunday afternoon into Monday snow will swivel from northwest to southeast, along with that, a strengthening southern flow of warmer saturated air , and looks likely to bring some heavy snow for most of the bluegrass. This particular parameter shows the potential lifting, this system has. Notice the “tounge” is coming in from the south, which indicates that there is energy to work with in the atmosphere, just enough to cause heavy banding of snow.

Theta-E Nam Monday morning

NAM 12X 850mb Theta-E, College of DuPage Wx

 

Now I’m going to give you a run through on the timing of this .

Newest runs suggest the timing of the snow moves in Northwest to Southeast from 7-10 am. This is from the NAM.. Notice by Sunday evening, the entire state is covered with snow, and it will be a battle between the warmer and colder air to determine whether or not several areas will see mixing.

11AM Sunday snow

Simulated Reflectivity, precip types, pivotalweather.com

 

7pm Sunday snow.jpg

NAM Simulated Reflectivity Precip Types, pivotalweather.com

 

 

The NAM is also showing interesting snowfall totals across the region.

Nam Snowfall output

NAM total snow accumulation, pivotalweather.com

 

With that being said, here are my first thoughts on the snow Sunday through Monday.

preliminary snow thoughts

This could very well change, check back with me later tonight to see if my thoughts stay the same!