30s

Nasty Winter Mess Late Weekend.

1:25PM 01.6.2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! Its been FRIGID, since we’ve started off each day this year in the single digits with subzero wind chills. All of that is about to change in the coming days. However, this weekend I’m tracking the arrival of a nasty weather system that will move through the region.

It’s something that I have kept watch for quite a while (aforementioned in my previous 7 day forecast) that Sunday and Monday look to be days that could bring a potential wintry mix. Here we are, almost 24 hours away from the forecast, and to be quite honest, I’m still having a hard time keying in on exactly who gets what and where.. But what I can tell you, is that EVERYONE has the potential of seeing all kinds of precipitation from rain to freezing rain/sleet and snow. Models have been honing in on the dicey winter set-up over much of the Ohio Valley for quite some time, this Arctic air has been holding on to us , and the question is, will it be strong enough to over-power the surge of ‘warmth’ coming from the south? Highs on Sunday could get into the mid to upper 30s and close to 40.

That’s the European forecast which generally has a good grasp on the temperature trends.

 

Sunday's high

ECMWF 0Z , WxBell

 

Here’s a look at the NAM expected highs, which you can see is running slightly cooler than the European. I think this one seems as a more likely high temp since temps by Sunday morning will start at about 10 degrees.

 

NAM sunday's highs

NAM 12Z, WxBell

 

 

Now lets look at the precipitation. This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because its hard to know exactly how much and what type of precipitation will be falling in some areas.

THE GFS run, which also pushes a little warmer than the NAM suggests a late mix with the transition to rain by Monday. But one thing is, temps will still hold to about 32-36 degrees, which is still a good window for any snow sleet and freezing rain. (I’ve seen wet snow fall at 35 degrees) so that’s something to keep in mind.  

 

GFS-WXBELL-Monday

GFS 00Z, WxBell

 

The NAM run shows a possible weak-wave moving in Sunday evening ahead of the main system. As you can see the pink indicates freezing rain and sleet and it keeps temps at bay of 32. Which is a textbook temp for any wintry precip.

 

NAM-sim-Radar-WXbell

NAM 12Z Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

So what are the key threats? I made a lovely graphic for you to see…

Winter threat index

*Freezing Rain-High

*Sleet- Moderate to High

*Wind- Moderate

*Snow- Moderate

Let’s talk about potential accumulations.

The European models shows the potential for atleast an inch of Snow by Monday afternoon. But notice how those totals are not widespread as opposed to the snow coverage north of the river.

 

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF (10:1) SnowDepth, WxBell

 

 

GFS even highlights to potential for localized 1” snow accumulations.

 

GFS snow ouptut

GFS Total Snow, Pivotal Weather

 

What about the Ice threat?

NAM suggests areas across central and eastern Kentucky will have a good layer of ice with the potential accumulated snow.

NAM ice forecast 

Here’s a more fine-tuned map that outlines the areas with the greatest potential for ice and snow.

Weekend Messy set-up

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂 

Advertisements

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.

Increasing High Impact Snow Storm

11:55 a 01/21

Models continue to show crippling snow totals statewide, so here is my latest shot at snow, Anywhere ranging from from 6″-14+”  expected across the state. My Latest shot at snow shows  a general 8″-12″ expected across central Kentucky. (Note: I’m being conservative with these numbers) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the sate. Prepare for significant crippling snows across the region.

winter storm warning ff last shot at snow

Tracking Snow Tuesday #KYWX

10:30p 01/11

Good evening, many were anticipating snow this weekend, and did see the first measurable snowfall. Tonight I’m watching the chances of seeing our first measurable snowfall greater than an inch. First of all, the National Weather Service in Louisville has confidence that several areas tomorrow morning will get some intense snows, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for most of the area.Winter Weather Advisory.jpg

 

Now… Let’s talk about the set-up.  Hi-Res NAM shows some hitching snow bands moving into the area Thursday morning, mostly light snow, but you may experience periods of heavy snow at times. Several of these heavier bands of snow could put down an extra quick half inch to an inch of snow on top of the accumulating light snow. The front will also bring gusts of about 30-40 mph, which could cause near whiteout conditions on the roads. School closings and delays are likely to more across central and northern Kentucky.

HiResNam Tuesday

 

Accumulations… It’s a very tricky forecast to grip, Snowfall ratios are around 5 to 1, which means that 1 in of rainfall would be equivalent to 5 inches of snow. Also, these bands will be isolated bands of heavy now, which makes it harder for models to pick where the most snow will fall. The latest NAM total precip shows the general areas that could anticipate more accumulation than others. With the potential water to snow equivalent, several spots could anticipate upwards to about 2” of snow.

Nam Accum Tuesday.jpg

 

However, the GFS pushes the heavier totals more to the north.

GFS accumulation Tuesday

 

With that being said, I’m sticking with my forecast of 1-2” generally for the area. Could some get an impressive 3”? Possibly so. Areas south of I-64 can anticipate a coating-1”.

last shot at snow Tuesday

Also, the snow isn’t the only concern. Wind Chill readings are expected to be in the single digits and lower teens.

Scott County Schools, i’m giving a 7/11 on the Snowday chance tomorrow. Tuesday's School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Will Winter Show up this weekend? #kywx

9:10 PM October 28, 2014

I haven’t done a blog post in a short while, but I’m here to share with you something that’s trending this week in the weather community. I think I have officially entered the SNOW Hype Train! Unfortunately, as much as these models are showing an aggressive wintry tease. The other thing to mention is how cool will those temperatures be when the precipitation moves in? ; Temps will be around the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is cold, but maybe not cold enough to bringing some accumulated snow. Another thing to consider is the amount of moisture in the air , If there is enough saturation, which will aid in vertical cooling, once that rain hit’s a thin ice layer, it could put down a wintry mix. But like I said ground temps will be warm enough for it not to accumulate. And most likely we could be dealing with just plain ole’ rain showers.
Below is the GFS models, which show a lot of precipitation with it. I also drew the front to give you a general idea of where the front will be on Friday evening.. Chances are, the majority of us will deal with a very wet and brisk Halloween evening.models this friday cold front Friday

I’m Forecaster Darius Mack, I’ll have more updates throughout the week!