Author: wxdyno

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, Tracking A Wintry Mess Friday Night

January 14, 2019  7:44pm  Published by Darius Mack

Happy Valentine’s Day! Temps are the mild side and clouds are on the increase just ahead of some showers that move through later tonight into the predawn hours tomorrow. The big weather maker arrives later on Friday afternoon that looks to bring a wintry mess across the commonwealth.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out because some people have the potential of seeing some accumulating snowfall Friday evening throughout early Saturday morning.

winter weather advisories.jpg

My attention is now towards the western part of the country, that’s the main source of energy, what we’re getting is a spin-off version of that system that will ride along the jet stream and track from west to east. Guidance shows a dip over Kentucky with positive spin by Saturday morning, that’s indicative that this will be a dynamically active weather system.

500 mb vorticity GFS

Hi-Res Nam shows the rain/snow moving in later Friday evening.

HiResNam

 

Lot’s of factors go into play here. All types of precip are likely with this system, but what about snowfall potential?

The Hi-Res Nam

NAM snow accumulation Saturday

 

The GFS

GFS snow ouptut

Both  models seem to hone in on the snowfall potential within less than 48 hours of this event. Therefore, my confidence on accumulating snowfall is moderate.

With that being said, here are my initial thoughts on who could get what out of this system. I may make modifications to this as we get closer to the valid time.

snow map

Thanks for checking out this blog! 😊

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Arctic Blast And Snow Next Week

12:38pm  published by Darius Mack

I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend so far. Weather-wise we have some small disturbances aloft that could bring some light flurries and snow showers throughout today and tomorrow. Highs are going to be in the low to mid 30s across the state today. Slightly milder temps tomorrow as we could get into the upper 30s for daytime highs and bottom out into the 20s.

Sounds mediocre compared to what’s arriving early next week. I’m watching a very aggressive block of cold air that will move across much of the Midwest and into our region. You’ve likely already seen the news headlines about this polar vortex that will affect millions of Americans.

arctic-cold-arrives

This will be an historic weather event for areas across the upper Midwest including parts of Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin as high temps are going to be about 25 to 30 below zero. Regardless, wind-chills will feel much lower than the anticipated highs. DANGEROUSLY COLD weather expected for them.

 

For us, the cold won’t be as stark, but we will likely be exposed to subzero actual air temps by Wednesday and Thursday morning of next week with highs possibly in the single digits.

gfs temps wednesday afternoon

That’s not all, with any enforced shot of cold air that moves into the region, there’s a battle between the milder and moist air from the gulf of Mexico. Temps will be cold enough to keep snow chances around. I am watching a powerful front that will swing through the area Monday night and into early Tuesday morning.

Here is a look at some guidance:

The NAM shows the system initially beginning as rain late Monday and early Tuesday.

floop-nam-2019012612.ref1km_ptype.us_ov

The GFS..

floop-gfs-2019012612.prateptype_cat.us_ov

The European model brings this system in Late Monday evening as well…

ecmwf-model-run-mondaytuesday

What about snowfall potential? The European is highlighting eastern Kentucky for the greatest potential of heavy snowfall accumulations. (Not a forecast)

european snowfall output tuesday

The GFS(Not a forecast)

gfs snowfall output

The NAM(Not a forecast)

nam snowfall output

All in all, snow is likely Monday night and into Tuesday morning, I’ve highlighted the area under the greatest chance of potentially seeing some moderate to heavy snowfall totals by Tuesday.

snowfall chances next week

I am confident that most spots will see heavy snowfall by Tuesday, I’ll keep you posted!

 

 

Winter Storm Potential This Weekend

12:32pm January 09, 2019 Published By Darius Mack

 

Good afternoon and Happy New Year!

Winter arrived Dec 21st in the calendar year, but the weather has not been agreeing, it’s been sort of mild with a lot of rain for the past few weeks, not really that exciting for some waiting for the winter time snow.  However, today I have some exciting news for snow lovers.

There’s potential for a winter storm system later into the week and models have been consistent with the snow chances across the commonwealth.

Let’s look at some comparisons.

The European model shows widespread snow across much the Midwest from Friday evening and into Sunday.

european model run winter storm threat

Of course, in Kentucky there’s always a fight between the dividing line of snow and rain, but this run shows that most of the precip does transition to snow.

Here’s a look at the snowfall output from that model run. *THIS IS NOT A FORECAST*

european snowfall output sunday morning

I’m sharing this to highlight the potential for significant snowfall accumulations, I wouldn’t take those numbers verbatim… We’ll have to see if this still holds together by Thursday night. 😉

 

The GFS run also shows a similar track for the winter storm.

gfs-run-this-weekend

And the NAM….

nam.refcmp_ptype.us_ov.2019010912-loop.gif

 

Things to highlight

  • Winter Storm Threat Friday Night- Sunday
  • SNOW/MIX Line will set up somewhere in Kentucky
  • The further North you go the better chance of seeing more snow totals, below are my initial thoughts on the Winter storm set up. Winter storm potnetial this weekend.jpg

Winter Weather Impacts This Weekend

2:35pm EDT 12/8/2018 By Darius Mack

Winter weather chances tonight

Good afternoon everyone, here’s a quick update on the winter weather potential this weekend. I’ve been monitoring those chances all week and models have been waffling for the past couple of days on how north or south the precipitation moves. Now that we’re less than 24 hours out my confidence on significant winter weather impacts for the weekend is about moderate to high.

WinterStormLowTrack

Here’s the breakdown:

TONIGHT-SUNDAY

-A Low tracks from the south, depending on how deep the Low is, determines how far north the swath of precip will move. Southern and eastern Kentucky looks to be getting most of the impacts out of the system this weekend.

-Temperatures will hover around the freezing mark when most of the precipitation moves in, however, Highs on Sunday will go above freezing which will allow for a transition from snow/sleet mix to rain. But Sunday night lows will go below freezing which will allow for any accumulating precip to refreeze overnight.

-There is a really sharp cut off from north to south with snow totals as anywhere from 0”-4+” snow is possible in southern Kentucky.

Below are my preliminary thoughts on the impacts of this winter system.

Snow Impact Sunday.jpg

 

Have a safe weekend!

Winter Weather Ahead..

5:30pm April 05,2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good evening everyone, well I’m going to get straight to the point. Winter weather is back on the horizon, especially within the next 24-36 hours. This could be mother nature’s cruelest April Fools joke. A Winter Storm Watch is out for much of the area as we anticipate rain and snow late Friday and into early Saturday.

Winter Storm Watch

 

The GFS shows a system diving out of the Midwest bringing rain late Friday, before making the transition to a mostly snow event for most.

GFS snow this weekend

Tonight I’ll post my thoughts on potential snowfall. So far, i’m not seeing anything extreme with snow amounts.

P.S. i’m seeing more snow chances into the week ahead :/

 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE TUESDAY

6:20PM  04/02/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good late evening! April has arrived, and its slowly beginning to feel like spring.  Of course you can’t have a Kentucky spring without a chance of severe weather. The storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma has highlighted much of the Ohio valley under some risk of severe weather with western Kentucky having the greatest risk for damaging winds and even a few tornadoes possible.

SPC outlook2

The NAM shows the main squall line zipping through this part of the state late tomorrow evening and throughout early Wednesday morning.

storms-tuesday-night

NAM, WXBell

I think the main threat is the damaging winds, but there could be some isolated spin ups associated. These types of tornadoes don’t usually last long, but they can form and go away quickly. Make sure that you do have a severe weather plan ready in case of an imminent severe weather threat.

Summer Threat Index1

I’ll be tracking and tweeting any severe weather updates tomorrow, feel free to follow me on twitter @dariusmack_wx!

 

 

Tracking Road Conditions

7:30 PM 01/15/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good evening! Some bands of light to moderate snow continue to slowly but surely make its way into the area. The snow isn’t the only thing to track, i’m tracking the road weather threat.  Let’s see how things are going across the state.

Frankfort

 

Georgetown

I-75 Scott County SB 

 

I-75 Scott County NB

 

Lexington 

I-75/I-64  Northern Split

 

I-75 Newtown Pike

I-75 Athens Boonesboro

I-75 North Clays Ferry

 

Louisville 

Downtown at 2nd Street 

 

I-65 N Fairgrounds

 

Southern Kentucky 

Bowling Green- Russellvile Rd @ Campbell Ln

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Light Snow Likely Today Through Tuesday

10:40  am 01/15/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Happy MLK Day! We had some light snow showers move through parts of central and eastern Kentucky last night, it did put down atleast a quarter to a half inch on top of what we’ve already had. Places in extreme Northern Kentucky have already seen atleast an inch of snow from last night’s showers. No matter how much snow you got this did create some slick spots this morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as more snow is expected later today and throughout Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Today’s highs could peak at or around the freezing mark before the front moves in.

GFS snowcast

Here is a look at some model runs.

The European run is more aggressive putting 2″-5″ snow potential through the state. *NOT A FORECAST* This is used as guidance.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

The Hi-Res Nam shows 1″-2″ of snow.

NAM snow totals

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow Output, WxBell

It’s with last night’s light snow disturbance , that has increased my confidence that we could see atleast an inch or two of snow out of this swath that will set-up from northwest to southeast. Yes, the last forecast was overdone, but I think I have a better handle on this one since this will likely be an ALL SNOW event.

First Shot at snow

The School Watch Meter Remains a 5 out of 11

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I will tweet and post Radar Updates through the day!

Light Snow Chances Monday-Tuesday

4:10 pm 01/14/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! The snow from this weekend’s winter storm remains on the ground for many areas. It looks like we’ll see some additional snow accumulations added to that as I’m tracking a light snow maker that moves through the region MLK day.

Here is a look at the GFS run for Monday. It suggests a swath of snow showers and squalls will push from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon.

GFS Monday Light Snow

The Hi-Res Nam also shows the same set-up, except its suggesting a brief mix before the snow dives in. It also pushes the system in a little earlier, say about noontime tomorrow.

NAM-Wxbell-light-snow-Monday

Now. Lets talk snow accumulations LOL.. Last snow system was obviously overdone with the models, but I will say that most areas in western Kentucky did atleast pick up on 5 inches of snow. It’s a reminder that we use these models as a guidance and don’t necessarily take them verbatim. And of course, its hard to predict snow totals when you have rain mixed in as well. However, I will say that this looks more like an all snow event and that does increase my confidence that we will see some light accumulations out of this system.

 

The NAM is not very bullish on the snow totals across the area, but it may also be having a hard time picking up on the embedded snow squalls that will zip through the area.

Nam Snowfall output

HiRes Nam Snowfall, WxBell

The European model shows anywhere from a coating to 2” of snow through much of the area.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Snowfall, WxBell

And the GFS…

GFS snow ouptut

So, here’s what I’m expecting. Minor accumulations. Further southeast you go, the better chance you have of getting 3”. All of the accumulated stuff is expected by Tuesday morning.

First Shot at snow

 

Could there be school closings or delays on Tuesday? The School Watch Meter is showing a Low to Moderate threat.

School Watch Meter Tuesday

Here’s why:

-The main band of snow exits late Monday through d the predawn hours on Tuesday

-Despite the hazardous travel threat, road crews may have time to clear roads that morning before schools open.

-Isolated snow showers and flurries remain through the day Tuesday

-Better chance for school delays than a full day closing.

 

 

If you do get a school closing, I guess there’s not much complaining. 😉

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂

Road Conditions Across The Area

10:40 AM 01/13/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good Morning! The Winter Storm is out of the area. However the road weather threat remains as roads are still covered with some patches of ice and snow. There’s just been a report of a jack-knifed semi on I-75 in Scott county. So if you don’t have to be out, its best to stay inside. Unless you feel absolutely comfortable driving in these conditions.

 

HERE IS A LOOK AT AREA ROADS:

Frankfort

 

Georgetown

I-75 Scott County SB

 

I-75 Scott County NB

 

 

Lexington

I-75 Russell Cave Rd

 

I-75 Winchester Road

 

I-75/I-64 Northern Split

 

I-75 Athens Boonsboro

 

Louisville

64E Hurstbourne Ln

 

Downtown at 2nd Street

Have a great and safe day!