Month: January 2018

Tracking Road Conditions

7:30 PM 01/15/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good evening! Some bands of light to moderate snow continue to slowly but surely make its way into the area. The snow isn’t the only thing to track, i’m tracking the road weather threat.  Let’s see how things are going across the state.

Frankfort

 

Georgetown

I-75 Scott County SB 

 

I-75 Scott County NB

 

Lexington 

I-75/I-64  Northern Split

 

I-75 Newtown Pike

I-75 Athens Boonesboro

I-75 North Clays Ferry

 

Louisville 

Downtown at 2nd Street 

 

I-65 N Fairgrounds

 

Southern Kentucky 

Bowling Green- Russellvile Rd @ Campbell Ln

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Light Snow Likely Today Through Tuesday

10:40  am 01/15/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Happy MLK Day! We had some light snow showers move through parts of central and eastern Kentucky last night, it did put down atleast a quarter to a half inch on top of what we’ve already had. Places in extreme Northern Kentucky have already seen atleast an inch of snow from last night’s showers. No matter how much snow you got this did create some slick spots this morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory as more snow is expected later today and throughout Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Today’s highs could peak at or around the freezing mark before the front moves in.

GFS snowcast

Here is a look at some model runs.

The European run is more aggressive putting 2″-5″ snow potential through the state. *NOT A FORECAST* This is used as guidance.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

The Hi-Res Nam shows 1″-2″ of snow.

NAM snow totals

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow Output, WxBell

It’s with last night’s light snow disturbance , that has increased my confidence that we could see atleast an inch or two of snow out of this swath that will set-up from northwest to southeast. Yes, the last forecast was overdone, but I think I have a better handle on this one since this will likely be an ALL SNOW event.

First Shot at snow

The School Watch Meter Remains a 5 out of 11

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I will tweet and post Radar Updates through the day!

Light Snow Chances Monday-Tuesday

4:10 pm 01/14/2018

Published By Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! The snow from this weekend’s winter storm remains on the ground for many areas. It looks like we’ll see some additional snow accumulations added to that as I’m tracking a light snow maker that moves through the region MLK day.

Here is a look at the GFS run for Monday. It suggests a swath of snow showers and squalls will push from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon.

GFS Monday Light Snow

The Hi-Res Nam also shows the same set-up, except its suggesting a brief mix before the snow dives in. It also pushes the system in a little earlier, say about noontime tomorrow.

NAM-Wxbell-light-snow-Monday

Now. Lets talk snow accumulations LOL.. Last snow system was obviously overdone with the models, but I will say that most areas in western Kentucky did atleast pick up on 5 inches of snow. It’s a reminder that we use these models as a guidance and don’t necessarily take them verbatim. And of course, its hard to predict snow totals when you have rain mixed in as well. However, I will say that this looks more like an all snow event and that does increase my confidence that we will see some light accumulations out of this system.

 

The NAM is not very bullish on the snow totals across the area, but it may also be having a hard time picking up on the embedded snow squalls that will zip through the area.

Nam Snowfall output

HiRes Nam Snowfall, WxBell

The European model shows anywhere from a coating to 2” of snow through much of the area.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Snowfall, WxBell

And the GFS…

GFS snow ouptut

So, here’s what I’m expecting. Minor accumulations. Further southeast you go, the better chance you have of getting 3”. All of the accumulated stuff is expected by Tuesday morning.

First Shot at snow

 

Could there be school closings or delays on Tuesday? The School Watch Meter is showing a Low to Moderate threat.

School Watch Meter Tuesday

Here’s why:

-The main band of snow exits late Monday through d the predawn hours on Tuesday

-Despite the hazardous travel threat, road crews may have time to clear roads that morning before schools open.

-Isolated snow showers and flurries remain through the day Tuesday

-Better chance for school delays than a full day closing.

 

 

If you do get a school closing, I guess there’s not much complaining. 😉

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂

Road Conditions Across The Area

10:40 AM 01/13/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good Morning! The Winter Storm is out of the area. However the road weather threat remains as roads are still covered with some patches of ice and snow. There’s just been a report of a jack-knifed semi on I-75 in Scott county. So if you don’t have to be out, its best to stay inside. Unless you feel absolutely comfortable driving in these conditions.

 

HERE IS A LOOK AT AREA ROADS:

Frankfort

 

Georgetown

I-75 Scott County SB

 

I-75 Scott County NB

 

 

Lexington

I-75 Russell Cave Rd

 

I-75 Winchester Road

 

I-75/I-64 Northern Split

 

I-75 Athens Boonsboro

 

Louisville

64E Hurstbourne Ln

 

Downtown at 2nd Street

Have a great and safe day!

 

 

Tracking The Winter Storm

6:07PM 01/12/2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good evening! The Winter Storm has arrived, and we’ve already been getting hit with some sleet and snow in our immediate area. Many have been asking me, “Where is the snow?” and I have that answer for you with some nice weather tracking tools:

RADAR:

bwg_None_anim (2)

 

Frankfort

 

Georgetown 

I-75 Scott County NB

 

I-75 Scott County SB

 

Lexington 

 

I-75 Russell Cave Rd

 

I-75 Winchester Rd

 

I-75/I-64 Northern Split

 

Louisville 

Downtown Louisville 2nd Street 

 

64 E Hurstbourne Ln

 

 

Late Week Winter Storm Threat

11:00 PM EST

Published by Darius Mack

Good late evening! It’s a little bit past my bed-time and I have an early shift tomorrow so I’m going to keep it short and simple. For some time, the weather community has been closely watching the potential for a developing  winter storm. Rain arrives Thursday evening, and pretty much through your Friday. Temps will start in the 50s Friday morning but could crash into the upper teens and lower 20s by Friday evening, and with that, anything that falls could be in the form of sleet and snow.

Here is a snapshot of some of the model runs Friday evening. .

With the rain to sleet to snow transition ice accumulations are likely as well..

ICE TOTALS saturday

Now lets look at the snow potential.

The European shows a risk for accumulating snow throughout all of Kentucky. A general 3” possible for many.

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF Total Snow, WxBell

 

The NAM which has been very insane with the snow totals the past runs, have actually lowered their totals.. Yes I said lowered, and it still shows the potential for hefty snow totals through central Kentucky by Saturday morning.

NAM snow accumulation Saturday

Hi-Res Nam Total Snow, WxBell

 

What can we expect?

-Rain Late Thursday

-Rain Transitions to Freezing rain by Friday afternoon as early as about 2PM. As temps are crashing and at or around freezing.

-Widespread sleet/snow by Friday evening and through Saturday morning.

 

Could schools close on Friday in lieu of the expected forecast? It’s a possibility, but right now the School Watch meter is showing a Low to Moderate Threat for school closings.

School Watch Meter Friday

 

So thoughts on snow? I think significant accumulations are possible for the region. Since this is an early forecast, this will likely change, i could shift heavier totals further northwest or even bump up or lower totals. Still some room for error, it all depends on where the heavy axis of sleet/snow develops.

preliminary snow thoughts

I’ll keep you posted!

 

Also.. FYI A Winter Storm Watch is out for some parts of the bluegrass and could extend more eastward.

Winter Storm Watch

Nasty Winter Mess Late Weekend.

1:25PM 01.6.2018

Published by Darius Mack

Good Afternoon! Its been FRIGID, since we’ve started off each day this year in the single digits with subzero wind chills. All of that is about to change in the coming days. However, this weekend I’m tracking the arrival of a nasty weather system that will move through the region.

It’s something that I have kept watch for quite a while (aforementioned in my previous 7 day forecast) that Sunday and Monday look to be days that could bring a potential wintry mix. Here we are, almost 24 hours away from the forecast, and to be quite honest, I’m still having a hard time keying in on exactly who gets what and where.. But what I can tell you, is that EVERYONE has the potential of seeing all kinds of precipitation from rain to freezing rain/sleet and snow. Models have been honing in on the dicey winter set-up over much of the Ohio Valley for quite some time, this Arctic air has been holding on to us , and the question is, will it be strong enough to over-power the surge of ‘warmth’ coming from the south? Highs on Sunday could get into the mid to upper 30s and close to 40.

That’s the European forecast which generally has a good grasp on the temperature trends.

 

Sunday's high

ECMWF 0Z , WxBell

 

Here’s a look at the NAM expected highs, which you can see is running slightly cooler than the European. I think this one seems as a more likely high temp since temps by Sunday morning will start at about 10 degrees.

 

NAM sunday's highs

NAM 12Z, WxBell

 

 

Now lets look at the precipitation. This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because its hard to know exactly how much and what type of precipitation will be falling in some areas.

THE GFS run, which also pushes a little warmer than the NAM suggests a late mix with the transition to rain by Monday. But one thing is, temps will still hold to about 32-36 degrees, which is still a good window for any snow sleet and freezing rain. (I’ve seen wet snow fall at 35 degrees) so that’s something to keep in mind.  

 

GFS-WXBELL-Monday

GFS 00Z, WxBell

 

The NAM run shows a possible weak-wave moving in Sunday evening ahead of the main system. As you can see the pink indicates freezing rain and sleet and it keeps temps at bay of 32. Which is a textbook temp for any wintry precip.

 

NAM-sim-Radar-WXbell

NAM 12Z Simulated Radar, WxBell

 

So what are the key threats? I made a lovely graphic for you to see…

Winter threat index

*Freezing Rain-High

*Sleet- Moderate to High

*Wind- Moderate

*Snow- Moderate

Let’s talk about potential accumulations.

The European models shows the potential for atleast an inch of Snow by Monday afternoon. But notice how those totals are not widespread as opposed to the snow coverage north of the river.

 

ECMWF snowdepth Monday

ECMWF (10:1) SnowDepth, WxBell

 

 

GFS even highlights to potential for localized 1” snow accumulations.

 

GFS snow ouptut

GFS Total Snow, Pivotal Weather

 

What about the Ice threat?

NAM suggests areas across central and eastern Kentucky will have a good layer of ice with the potential accumulated snow.

NAM ice forecast 

Here’s a more fine-tuned map that outlines the areas with the greatest potential for ice and snow.

Weekend Messy set-up

 

I’ll keep you posted! 🙂