Published by Darius Mack
Good Afternoon! Its been FRIGID, since we’ve started off each day this year in the single digits with subzero wind chills. All of that is about to change in the coming days. However, this weekend I’m tracking the arrival of a nasty weather system that will move through the region.
It’s something that I have kept watch for quite a while (aforementioned in my previous 7 day forecast) that Sunday and Monday look to be days that could bring a potential wintry mix. Here we are, almost 24 hours away from the forecast, and to be quite honest, I’m still having a hard time keying in on exactly who gets what and where.. But what I can tell you, is that EVERYONE has the potential of seeing all kinds of precipitation from rain to freezing rain/sleet and snow. Models have been honing in on the dicey winter set-up over much of the Ohio Valley for quite some time, this Arctic air has been holding on to us , and the question is, will it be strong enough to over-power the surge of ‘warmth’ coming from the south? Highs on Sunday could get into the mid to upper 30s and close to 40.
That’s the European forecast which generally has a good grasp on the temperature trends.
ECMWF 0Z , WxBell
Here’s a look at the NAM expected highs, which you can see is running slightly cooler than the European. I think this one seems as a more likely high temp since temps by Sunday morning will start at about 10 degrees.
NAM 12Z, WxBell
Now lets look at the precipitation. This is the trickiest part of the forecast, because its hard to know exactly how much and what type of precipitation will be falling in some areas.
THE GFS run, which also pushes a little warmer than the NAM suggests a late mix with the transition to rain by Monday. But one thing is, temps will still hold to about 32-36 degrees, which is still a good window for any snow sleet and freezing rain. (I’ve seen wet snow fall at 35 degrees) so that’s something to keep in mind.
GFS 00Z, WxBell
The NAM run shows a possible weak-wave moving in Sunday evening ahead of the main system. As you can see the pink indicates freezing rain and sleet and it keeps temps at bay of 32. Which is a textbook temp for any wintry precip.
NAM 12Z Simulated Radar, WxBell
So what are the key threats? I made a lovely graphic for you to see…
*Sleet- Moderate to High
Let’s talk about potential accumulations.
The European models shows the potential for atleast an inch of Snow by Monday afternoon. But notice how those totals are not widespread as opposed to the snow coverage north of the river.
ECMWF (10:1) SnowDepth, WxBell
GFS even highlights to potential for localized 1” snow accumulations.
GFS Total Snow, Pivotal Weather
What about the Ice threat?
NAM suggests areas across central and eastern Kentucky will have a good layer of ice with the potential accumulated snow.
Here’s a more fine-tuned map that outlines the areas with the greatest potential for ice and snow.
I’ll keep you posted! 🙂