Month: January 2016

Just How Warm are we going to get?

11:15 AM  01/29 Good Friday morning! I’m going to be brief because I have to get back to my homework, I’m posting about this because I feel like its worth sharing. Starting  tomorrow and into early next week a dramatic spike in temperatures are expected.

The EURO,( which is really good on picking up temp trends) is showing some extreme warmth set up for Kentucky, especially for this time of year.

Saturday: The Euro is putting highs in the mid 50s for the area, not to mention we’ll have pleasant conditions as well..

euro highs

ECMWF Surface Temps Saturday, WxBell

Sunday and Monday highs will stay in the 50s, rain showers arrive Sunday evening, and exit by Monday afternoon.

 

Now on to  Tuesday. Tuesday evening temps could be well into the 60s. The Euro shows a high-budget temperature wise, putting highs in the upper 60s near 70..

Tuesday highs euro

ECMWF Surface Temps Tuesday, WxBell

 

BUT.. The Canadian and GFS are putting highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. quite opposed to the upper 60s. I think there’s a good shot at us reaching the mid 60s.

However, one thing they all agree with is a system bringing a whole lot of wind and rain late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Followed by a  sharp crash in temps, by Wednesday afternoon temps could be in the low 30s, and thing is, we’re not done yet.

A push of Arctic air continues to move through the Midwest, and  there is a possibility that next Friday’s highs could be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

gfs Vort Friday

GFS 500 VORT, WxBell.

 

I’ll keep you posted, enjoy your weekend! 🙂

Snow Arrives, Last Shot at Snow.

9:40 am 01/22

Good Friday morning, the snow has arrived and is falling across much of the state. As the snow presses in northbound , its takin time moistening up the atmosphere, northern zones will see the lower totals because the air is relatively “crisper” the places with the most saturated air are areas across southern and central Kentucky, which means the bigger flakes right now are south of I-64. Much of the precip there has already shifted to snow, and with that in mind, higher snow totals can be anticipated around the Bowling Green area. Here is my Last and Final shot at snow for this winter storm.

bwg_None_anim.gif last shot at snow.jpg

Increasing High Impact Snow Storm

11:55 a 01/21

Models continue to show crippling snow totals statewide, so here is my latest shot at snow, Anywhere ranging from from 6″-14+”  expected across the state. My Latest shot at snow shows  a general 8″-12″ expected across central Kentucky. (Note: I’m being conservative with these numbers) A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the sate. Prepare for significant crippling snows across the region.

winter storm warning ff last shot at snow

Cripling Snow Headed Our Way

1/20  11:20p

Good late evening, confidence on widespread accumulating snow has increased, we are just a little over 24 hours away from the expected winter storm. I also want to make a pointer, earlier call was quite conservative with numbers, this second bite is also pretty conservative with snow totals. Anywhere from 6″-14″ expected across central and eastern Kentucky. Not to mention, mixing in southern Kentucky could put down a layer of ice, below the accumulating snow. Here is what i’m thinking now, changes will be made tomorrow afternoon.

Second shot at snow

Winter Storm Threat Friday

2:20 p 01/20

Good Afternoon! Snow showers continue for parts of eastern Kentucky, many school closings across the state, this may not be the only time this week we see schools shut down statewide. And here’s why:

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for the area, that’s not for today, but for Thursday night and into Friday. Now to see if it will upgrade to a warning. Winter Storm Watch.jpg

 

Snow/Mix arrives late Thursday night and early Friday morning for southern zones, then transitions to all snow for the area Friday afternoon. NAM-run-1.gifHere is what I’m thinking so far on snow totals.. Check with me tomorrow afternoon to see  if my thoughts remain the same. Stay Safe!

First Shot at snow.jpg

SNOW HEADED OUR WAY AND THE SCHOOL WATCH METER WEDNESDAY

10:50p 01/19

Good late evening, i’m going to be short and brief tonight,  It’s a pretty busy week weather-wise, I’ve already had people asking me about the Snowday chances, as well as the next BIG system moving in later this week. I will touch base on that tommrow, but for now we focus on  snow expected to arrive around 5-7 am tomorrow morning.

Here are my latest thoughts, I’ve changed some totals, but the areas with the heaviest of those totals still remain south, 4-6″ possible for areas near Bowling Green. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for that area.

winter weather advisories.jpg

 

Here is my latest thoughts concerning snow totals..

last shot at snow.jpg

 

Scott County Students, I’m giving you a HIGH chance for a snowday tomorrow, and here’s why.

  1. Snow arrives from 5-7 am, the ground remains very cold, any snow that does fall, will not hesitate to stick. Keep in mind we’ve been in the single digits, and highs today struggled to get out of the teens.You won’t wake up to an inch of snow, but it will keep falling.
  2. Snow will  exit around 3-4 pm in the afternoon, that’s basically around the time most school systems dismiss classes.
  3. If  I were the superintendent, I would cancel classes.
  4. Overall, EVERYONE in Kentucky will likely see atleast an inch or greater.

Enjoy your snow-day, and sleep-in 😉

school watch meter wednesday

 

Accumulating Snow Possible Wednesday and the School Watch Meter

10:00 PM 01/18

It’s a very brisk MLK Jr Day, highs only made it into the upper teens, the daytime high in Lexington was 19 degrees, barely hit 20, however windchills hovered anywhere around 0 to 5 degrees this afternoon. We’re stuck with this cold tomorrow as well as highs are only expected to reach the low 20s.

Now on to Wednesday, a snow moves in Wednesday morning, and at this point it is likely that several spots could see a couple of inches,  especially for those across southern Kentucky .  Snowfall ratios will be near 8:1, thanks to a very cold ground set by this Arctic cold, and temperatures that morning will be in the upper teens and lower 20s. Here is my first shot at snow. First Shot at snow.jpg

 

Now a Snowday comes into question, and as a former Scott County student, I always loved to see snow in the forecast, because that meant a possible delay or closing.School teachers and staff, I know the ‘talk of the town ‘ will be Wednesday morning’s snow. So here’s just a run-down of what i’m seeing

  1. Snow arrives around 5-8 am Wednesday morning, roads will remain will below freezing, any snow that falls will stick.
  2. There may be some heavy periods of snow at times which could limit visibility.
  3. Though we aren’t getting the MOST  out of this, regardless,  accumulating snow is conducive to deteriorating road conditions,
  4. Most School systems either Delay or Close school in these type of events, but it’s not my call, its the Superintendent’s.
  5. I will have gain confidence on whether or not there’s a school closing tomorrow, so check back with me.
So for that, I’m giving Scott County Students a MODERATE  chance for a Snowday on Wednesday.
Wednesday School Watch Meter.jpg

 

Tracking Snow Tuesday #KYWX

10:30p 01/11

Good evening, many were anticipating snow this weekend, and did see the first measurable snowfall. Tonight I’m watching the chances of seeing our first measurable snowfall greater than an inch. First of all, the National Weather Service in Louisville has confidence that several areas tomorrow morning will get some intense snows, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for most of the area.Winter Weather Advisory.jpg

 

Now… Let’s talk about the set-up.  Hi-Res NAM shows some hitching snow bands moving into the area Thursday morning, mostly light snow, but you may experience periods of heavy snow at times. Several of these heavier bands of snow could put down an extra quick half inch to an inch of snow on top of the accumulating light snow. The front will also bring gusts of about 30-40 mph, which could cause near whiteout conditions on the roads. School closings and delays are likely to more across central and northern Kentucky.

HiResNam Tuesday

 

Accumulations… It’s a very tricky forecast to grip, Snowfall ratios are around 5 to 1, which means that 1 in of rainfall would be equivalent to 5 inches of snow. Also, these bands will be isolated bands of heavy now, which makes it harder for models to pick where the most snow will fall. The latest NAM total precip shows the general areas that could anticipate more accumulation than others. With the potential water to snow equivalent, several spots could anticipate upwards to about 2” of snow.

Nam Accum Tuesday.jpg

 

However, the GFS pushes the heavier totals more to the north.

GFS accumulation Tuesday

 

With that being said, I’m sticking with my forecast of 1-2” generally for the area. Could some get an impressive 3”? Possibly so. Areas south of I-64 can anticipate a coating-1”.

last shot at snow Tuesday

Also, the snow isn’t the only concern. Wind Chill readings are expected to be in the single digits and lower teens.

Scott County Schools, i’m giving a 7/11 on the Snowday chance tomorrow. Tuesday's School Watch Meter.jpg