Month: January 2015

New Post. Less Snow, But Messier#KYWX

Posted at 9:45 pm January 30,2015 by Darius Mack

All the tension is still rising on what to expect later on this weekend. Don’t worry I haven’t forgotten about it, in fact its been on my mind since Wednesday. Let’s take a bit of a recap, remember Wednesday evening when I told you about the snow potential this system had?

GFS Snow Total Forecast

Well..Let’s just look at the latest run on that…

GFS snow accumulation

Notice that most of the higher snow totals has shifted further north, however GFS  still gives us a chance of seeing some minor accumulations. Now let’s compare with what the NAM is spitting out..

NAM snow totals

They both show the possibility of accumulating snow by Monday morning. The Key to knowing how much snow we’ll get depends on how this thing tracks.

Latest models are trending more rain than snow for our region. The GFS shows the LOW tracking north into the state, and bringing snow showers behind it as a strong mass of cold air filters in behind it.

GFS runs Sunday

The Canadian keeps the rain/mix line near Cincy’/Covington  area, and also shows some light accumulating snow Monday morning as the LOW tracks along the coast.

Canadian model run

Now since snow accumulations are minor, even the lightest accumulation can cause for some travel issues. Here is a map on where I think areas may deal with the highest risks on travel.

Snow Impact Sunday

Now How is the School Watch Meter looking?  Right now it’s sitting at a LOW-MODERATE chance for a SnowDay on Monday, keep in mind this is fairly good for the School Watch Meter to be here, especially when we are looking two days in advance. Check back with me Sunday evening to see if it goes up or down. 🙂

School Watch Meter Monday
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Friday’s School Watch Meter.

Posted at 6:30PM January 29,2015 by Darius Mack

Good late evening everyone, I’ve been monitoring those snow chances tonight, and here is what I think so far..

snow chances tonight

Snow showers will swing from Northwest to Southeast and does have a chance of only putting down some light accumulations, could cause some travel issues, the School Watch Meter is putting a LOW chance for a SnowDay. A Low- Moderate chance for a school delay central Kentucky students.Check back with me tomorrow morning to see if there are any changes.

Friday's School Watch Meter

One thing i still continue to monitor is Sunday’s system, latest runs continue to show mostly the same data. I’ll hopefully have a better idea on how this pans out by Friday evening. 🙂

Snow Bowl Sunday?#KYWX

Posted at 7:30 PM January 28,2015 by Darius Mack

Hello folks! I’ve been closely monitoring this weekend’s weather potential, forecast still isn’t set in stone because its about 100 hours away. However, all models have been putting the chance of a messy set-up set to take aim at the bluegrass in the coming days. I first want you to look at the GFS run by Sunday afternoon.

GFS sunday run 1

By Sunday evening, some areas across eastern Kentucky could be dealing with a rain mix.

GFS sunday run 2

As well, the potential for accumulating snow is there, now don’t start the snow dance yet this ain’t guaranteed!

GFS Snow Total Forecast

More updates will come later as we get closer.

Monitoring potential Winter Weather this weekend.#kywx

Posted at 9:45 PM January 27,2015 by Darius Mack

Good Tuesday evening, while i’m sitting here enjoy my “snowless” SnowDay, i think to myself, will there ever really be a SnowDay with lots of fun snow? Well…that thought stuck with me, actually it still sticks with me as i monitor the potential for winter weather this weekend, however there are two scenarios to think about.

Lets take a look at Scenario A. In order or Kentucky to get the bulls-eye for snow, the Low must track south of the state.

Scenario A Sunday

Scenario B. I don’t really like  Scenario B, but that doesn’t mean its not in question. The Low tracks around the Midwest, may give us plain rain, and light snow showers as the Low exits the region.

Scenario B Sunday

In the field of forecasting there are endless possibilities, i will be watching closely, at this point, models are trending the Low tracking south of the Bluegrass. 🙂

Winter Weather Tracker Update. #KYWX

Posted at 4:25 AM January 26,2015 by Darius Mack

Good early morning gang, we’re watching for the possibility of slick travel this morning as snow moves across parts of the region this morning. Here is a current look at the Radar from Intellicast. What you’re seeing is the low-level wrap around moisture as the LOW tracks east.

bwg_None_anim

This isn’t a widespread snow, but lets check and see how those temps are this morning. Any temps at or below freezing is something to be concerned about, several areas could see some ICY spots on the roads this morning.

temps right now

Now lets track those road conditions.

I-75 @ Man o’ War

I-75 Man o War

Scott I-75 SB 127 MM

I75 SB 127MM

I-75@1-71 Southern Split

I-75@1-71 Southern Split

  I-275 @1-471

I-275 @1-471   

I-64 @ East 22nd Street Louisville

64 E at 22ND street Louisvile

Since road conditions look to have deteriorated and temp are subfreezing, The School Watch Mete is under a LOW-MODERATE chance for a closing, there is an increased risk however of a school delay.

School Watch Meter Monday

Little Snow Possible Tonight.#KYWX

Posted at 1:18 PM January 25,2015 by Darius Mack

Here is my last shot at snow, most may expect a Trace to maybe a possible localized inch, while places north has a better shot of seeing at least an inch or two.

Snowfall potential Sun-Mon(2)

SCHOOL WATCH METER remains  LOW, however the timing of the snow may bring a few school delays. I recommend you do your homework tonight!

School Watch Meter Monday

Updated Snow Map.#KYWX

Posted at 8:15PM January 24,2015 by  Darius Mack

A Low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley bringing rain, sleet, and snow, I don’t anticipate much snowfall accumulations here in our region, northern and eastern zones may see a general 1-3″, As of now, I think its best ans safe to say a light coating to an inch for our area.

Snowfall potential Sun-Mon(2)

The School Watch Meter continues to put at a LOW-MODERATE chance for a SnowDay, I think northern counties and eastern counties may have a better chance of seeing a delay or cancellation.

School Watch Meter Monday

Tommorow, i’ll be tracking the latest, you know where to find me 🙂

Monday’s SCHOOL WATCH . #KYWX

Posted at 12:20 PM January,24,2015 by Darius Mack

The sun is out the sky is blue, some snow may melt later on this afternoon, that’s the end of this chapter, we may have another fresh start coming up later this weekend.

Another wave of energy will move along the Ohio valley, setting the stage for rain, sleet, and snow. However, I don’t anticipate this to be like yesterday’s winter storm. Temps Sunday afternoon will likely make a surge around 40 degrees from the west, then the cold air takes a dive by Sunday night, bringing light snow, freezing rain, and sleet, and it may stick around for the morning commute Monday morning, which could cause some travel issues. Since this is light snow,  It may  put down a few minor accumulations in our region.

snow sunday 1Snow Sunday 2Snow SUnday 3Snow Sunday 4

1-2″ Can’t be ruled out, there may be higher snow totals in eastern Ky. I’ll have the final shot coming up later.

Snowfall potential Sun-Mon(2)

The SCHOOL WATCH METER is putting a LOW-MODERATE chance for a SnowDay on Monday for central Ky students.

School Watch Meter Monday

Check back tomorrow, to see if it goes up or down.

Snow Chances Sunday Evening. #KYWX

Posted at 2:00AM January 24,2015  by Darius Mack

Rise and shine, many has dealt with a snowy surprise, there’s roughly 3-4″ of snow at my house, and i’m living it! It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a good snow, it it certainly was one yesterday. Forecast highs where 6 degrees off, and temps stayed much cooler allowing for more cold and snow to take territory.

As of yesterday, I may have received some complaints, but I  want you to take into consideration the analysis a forecaster goes through before determining snow totals.

Number 1: How Cold Will It Get? 

The Friday-Saturday snow event was a marginalized event, some got rain, some got sleet before it transitioned to all snow. In order to determine the type of precip i must know if the temperature will get low enough.

Number 2: How Saturated is the Atmosphere?

I must check the latest soundings, they help tell me whether part of the atmosphere is dry,the type of precip, and if there is snow, the flake size. Another thing to check is the wet-bulb temperature, which lets me indicate the amount of water evaporation,which cools the atmosphere. and it tells me the lowest thermodynamic temp possible, or the lowest energy driven temp possible.

soundings

Soundings (COD Weather)

Number 3:How Potent is the System?     I check the Vorticty, which measures the strength of the storm, that can sometimes be helpful for predicting the location of snow squalls.

vorticity

500 mb Vorticity Ht (COD Weather)

Number 4:How fast is the snow going to fall? Check the Vertical Velocity, That’s also helpful for predicting locations that could see snow squalls or higher snow totals.

850mb vertical velocity

NAM 850 MB Vertical Velocity (COD Weather)

Number 5: Will it Stick on the Roads? Monitor the ground level temps or road temps, to see if the snow will stick on the ground.

Number 6: Compare projected snowfall totals with Model data and Analysis.

Number 7: Any Advisories or Warnings  I don’t issue Advisories and warnings, so I Check the Local government agency forecasting offices, and compare your analysis, also stay posted to see if any Warning or Advisory has been issued.

Number 8: Make the snowfall Map

Speaking of which, here are my first thoughts concerning Sunday Night-Monday Morning’s snow. This is not the final deal, check back with me later this evening to see if there are any changes, I’ll have the SCHOOL WATCH Meter up later. ALSO make sure i’m not your only source for weather, continue to check with other sources as well. 🙂

Snowfall potential Sun-Mon(2)