Month: November 2014

Light Snow Showers Possible Late Wednesday. #KYWX

9:20 PM 11/18/14

It’s late this Tuesday evening and i’m tracking a polar plunge, the effects of that is being shown through those wind chill readings this hour, courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet.

Kentucky_web

Snow chances return, as a period of light snow will move through the region late Wednesday through early Thursday morning. NAM suggests a line of snow showers moving in Wednesday night. SO those of you asking me “When is the next time we’ll see snow?” There’s your answer.

snow squal Thursday

Double Checking…

GFS also shows a light snow band early Thursday morning. Temps during this will likely be around 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

gfs thursday

All in all, don’t anticipate much accumulation, a dusting or a trace is possible, some areas may not even see anything on the ground.

Good night and stay safe!

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Winter Tracker Update #kywx

6:15 AM

Here is the latest on what i’m tracking this hour, Lexington get prepared for the Rain to Ice to Snow transition, Fayette County Public Schools will operate on a Two Hour Delay. Scott County Schools are CLOSED today, as well as other closings and delays going on this morning. The temps out there are now reaching the freezing mark, expect roads out there to be hazardous.

Knetucky_webbwg_None_anim (4)

Here is the latest road conditions across the state.

I-75-64 Southern Split

cam 1

I-75 Newtown Pike 

cam 3

I-75 SB Scott County

cam 4                                                                                                           I-75 &1-71 Split

.cam 2                                                                                                Louisville 22nd Street

cam 5

Tracking Winter Weather #KYWX

4:30 AM November 17,2014

Good Monday Morning! I’m tracking the latest on winter, here is a look at the current radar, the warm layer line has went down SE just a bit, and several areas north of Lexington should be seeing the sleet starting to mix in with the snow this hour.

bwg_None_anim (4)

What’s crucial in these type of events are those temperatures, temps are just 2 degrees shy in Lexington of hitting the freezing mark, Frankfort is coming in at 33 degrees, and places further northwest are showing 32 degree readings as of 4AM!

Kentucky_web

How are those roads looking in Lexington so far? It looks like they’re staying wet, but as we wait the next couple of hours we could see some messy stuff on the roads this morning.

I-75 @ I-71 Split

cam 1

I-75 I-64 Southern Split 

cam 2

I-75 Newtown Pike

cam 3

Scott County I-75

cam 4

Here Is a Look at what’s happening in Louisville 

cam 5

I’ll update throughout your morning!
(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Last Shot at Snowfall and the School Watch Meter. #kywx

7:45 PM November 16,2014

Good Sunday evening folks! We have Winter officially on our door step and I’m tracking those changes tonight. First, I want to show you the latest on RADAR, the rain/ snow transition is making it’s way NW to SE, as you can see extreme northern portions of the viewing audience is already getting some of that snow this hour.

bwg_None_anim (3)

HOWEVER, temps right now are staying a bit on the warm side for this stuff to accumulate, and we got a while before we can anticipate seeing some wet and snowy covered roads tomorrow morning. I think I have “forecaster’s gut” It’s a cringe every forecaster gets when he knows there are some adjustments to be made. I want to back track a bit, this morning, 2-4” was my call. But as I’m getting closer, these temps won’t drop quick enough, and this may not be the type of snow to do that. Here is my Final Shot at the snow forecast.

first shot at snowfall
NOW, the School watch meter hasn’t went up or down and it’s staying at a steady 8 for school closings here in central Kentucky. I must say Central Kentucky, because not all of Kentucky will get their first snow day. I’ll be up tracking the latest!

School watch meter Monday

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

New Amounts & Updated School Watch Meter. #kywx

6:32 PM November 15,2014

Here is my second shot at the snowfall potential, models continue to show aggressive snow amounts pushing NW. As well as that heavy band of snow that will track near Louisville could put down several inches. Most places south will either deal with a rain or mix.second shot at snowfall

Here is your SCHOOL WATCH meter. Notice it has gone up to 8, for now, FCPS Superintendents start considering preparations to cancel school. we’ll see if it goes up any tomorrow. Stay safe!

School watch meter Monday

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Tracking some Light Stuff Tonight, Then..#kywx

1:40 PM November 15,2014

Hello, and good Saturday afternoon!
While we have this talk about Sunday’s snow, we have a precursor that’s on our forefront. Latest HiRes data continues to show a few light bands of snow moving across the central and southern zones of the bluegrass tonight. This is not the main snow event, the big one to impact us comes in on Sunday- Monday. However, slick roads are a concern, only anticipate light accumulations tonight. Stick around for more updates, I’ll have your updated snowfall potential for Monday coming up later this evening. 🙂

HRR tonight

My Thoughts and the School Watch Meter #kywx

12:25 AM November 15,2014
Good early morning  peeps , it’s time to track the latest on the snow potential we have coming later this weekend. Remember on Tuesday how I told you about the potential for some accumulating snows? I know some have tried to ignore the thought of it, but there’s really no way of escaping it. As for me, I do love snow, and other snow lovers may feast their eyes on the first winter storm of the season. storm set up sunday

First, Let’s talk about that storm potential, here is a look at the SET-UP Sunday night through Monday morning. Latest suggestions continue to show a possible early winter storm. I think we may see some reinforced heavy bands of snow that may track SW to NE, most likely across the I-65 corridor, and with these heavy snows we should anticipate these bands to dump some quick sizeable amounts.
Here are my latest thoughts. Should I tweak them higher or lower? We’ll just have to see tomorrow!

first shot at snowfall

Superintendents, your School Watch Meter for Monday is giving us a moderate chance for a snow day, sitting at a 6.This may change stay tuned for more updates. Stay safe!

School watch meter Monday
(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Will Winter Deliver the package this Weekend? #kywx

10:30 PM November 11,2014
It’s Late this Tuesday evening, but no worries I have your update on that snow potential I talked to you about  a few days ago. The snow chances have now been pushed back to Sunday. But first, lets track some of that stuff that’s on the radar. Gusty lines of showers are pushing in SW to NE this hour, these showers are gusting generally around 30-40mph, this will exit throughout the first half of your Wednesday, but those temps are on the decline and that is the case for the rest of the week. Make sure you bundle up! bwg_None_anim (1)

FAST FORWARD… BOOM KAZAM! It’s action packed, no telling how many snow day questions I’ve been getting concerning this snow event expected Sunday evening. Let me get things straight, I know the weather more than I know our superintendent, will she be generous on those snow days this year? I don’t know. If my confidence level improves I might share my thoughts on that on Friday. Right now I just want to talk about snow potential,
SATURDAY, I’m watching a mid-wave disturbance that set’s up across the Kansas/Missouri valley, and a southern flow will aid in the moisture bank, just how much are we talking? Here is a look at those GFS runs. The Blue line represents the freezing line, notice how it stays below Kentucky. A series of snow showers will likely filter through Sunday night- Monday morning is the timing that I’m closely watching. GFS spits out a general 1-2 inches for our region and locally higher amounts can be expected by Monday afternoon.
My confidence on this however is still a 50/50, if this holds it should boost up by Friday!

GFS models sunday       GFS accumulation model monday
Stay safe!

(Forecaster Darius Mack)

Crashing Temps next week, and possibly snow? #KYWX

8:00PM November 5, 2014

Hope you have had a great day! You guys know me, like I said last week, I’ve entered the snow hype train. While I was composing my usual week outlook, I stumped upon next week.
I’ve messaged several of my friends and there has been a consensus that by the later part of next week, we could see some good snow chances . Here is the latest from the GFS runs by next Thursday. The blue line indicates the Freezing Rain/Snow line.

gfs next thursday snow hype train

BUT..
We always have to consider that this forecast is a week  away, so the validity of this is low, one thing for sure is that these temps will definitely drop. If these models stay consistent, I may pick back up on this next Tuesday.

COD WEATHER  Numerical Models

COD WEATHER Numerical Models

Which brings me to this concern.
Make sure that you are getting weather information from a credible and reliable weather source, reliability is an important thing to have especially when we are approaching closer to the winter season.
Have a safe night!

Last Shot For First Flakes Potential #KYWX

10:25 PM October 31,2014
Snow is beginning to show on the RADAR right now!bwg_None_anim

NOW.. Since time is approaching, and I’m more accurate as we get closer to the actual forecast, here is my final shot of tonight’s snow. I’ve noted in a blue box that several spots can expect the majority of the snow accumulation on the grass, those of you who are in SE Kentucky may experience higher amounts along elevated surfaces. Stay safe!

snowfall totals through friday

-Forecaster Darius Mack

Contact info: DariusMack.FootsForecast@mail.com