Father’s Day Storms

  • 1:10 AM 06/18/2017  By Darius Mack

Well if you’re like me, you’ve been taking advantage of this amazing weather for the past couple of days. Despite the heat and humidity today, it was a good evening to hang around and “chill” outside for a bit. However, I’m talking big changes coming later on your Father’s Day Sunday. You might not be able to play those whole 18 holes tomorrow however you may get a chance at putting a few holes if you’re out a little earlier in the day.  A cold front is expected to move from the northwest into the southeast, and will likely bring some high winds and heavy rain with it. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok has put out a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for all of the Bluegrass state.

SPC outlook Sunday

 

The timing is mainly in the afternoon, can’t really rule out a stray shower or storm chance earlier in the morning as dew points will already be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The GREATEST chance will come after about 2PM Sunday afternoon. That’s when you should anticipate more of a widespread weather event. According to NAM, the first round will move in around 2-4pm, and another round possibly late Sunday night and into early Monday morning.

NAM-run-Sunday

Be sure to stay vigilant of any changing weather conditions, overall, I’m not anticipating a total severe weather outbreak, just stay vigilant as we could see several severe warned storms across the state.

Tracking Severe Storms This Weekend

Good Saturday morning , I hope everyone is enjoying the nice weather we had thus far. Changes are coming in the short term as I’m seeing a severe weather risk on your Saturday, and not only that the heat and humidity ramps up as highs will reach the low 80s, which make it ripe for thunderstorm development. Not to mention, dewpoints will be in the 70s which is also promotes the ‘juicing’ of these thunderstorms. With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced risk over much of the Ohio valley region.

SPC outlook1.jpg

 

Tomorrow morning things are relatively quiet, but things are anticipated to pick up during the heating of the day. Storms will begin to build along a west to east corridor, almost acting like a conveyor belt, these storms will track through central Kentucky. I would say around 12PM-3PM are the times to keep checking your radar apps… What you are seeing is one of the high resolution models called the HRRR  that updates by the hour. It shows us a guidance on what we can expect during the day,  by the hour.

HRRR-Saturday

 

All in all, some will get hit with storms at some point of time, while others may not, but eventually everyone will likely see storms tomorrow. These storms will have alot of water, and will cause some localized flood threats which is why the Flood threat is set at a moderate.  The main threats are damaging wind, hail, and while the tornado threat isn’t quite high, it’s something to keep an eye on.

Threat Index 2

 

I’ll keep you posted!

Darius,

Cold and Snow This Weekend

10:35 am 03/10/17

Good Friday Morning everyone! Well, the weekend is just about here and it comes with cold and snow. Yes, snow is in the forecast. First off, I want to go ahead and point out that there is a FREEZE warning in place for everybody in Kentucky. That goes through tonight and early Saturday morning.  That means that any tender vegetation that’s growing ahead of schedule is susceptible to damage.

Freeze Warning

Now.. What should we expect within the next 24 hours…

NAM-Weekend-Snow

Latest model runs suggest that places south will get the biggest impact from the snow. The NAM model run hints at heavy wet snow moving through south western Kentucky and into Tennessee. Here in our area, we can generally expect just some light snow showers that will just put down some minor accumulations.  Overall, timing of snow is through the day on Saturday, I’m not anticipating anything significant.

 

I made just a short graphic on what the expectations of snow should be this weekend.

My confidence on even seeing an inch of snow is low.

What to Expect this weekend

The next thing I’m watching is a system that will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning, that seems to have a better chance on seeing accumulating snows. I’ll keep you posted!

*ALSO: Daylight Savings Time Begins March 12TH AT 2AM. Be sure to move clocks AHEAD 1 hour Saturday night!

 

Try to stay warm this weekend!

 

Severe Weather Risk

6:27p 02/28
Good afternoon, the rain has been a nuisance, and we’re not seeing any improvements. In fact, there is a Severe weather threat for much of the area. The Storm Prediction center has placed an Enhanced risk over all of central and eastern Kentucky. Storms will push through the area overnight and through the early morning hours. They will come in a series of waves throughout Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. The key threat is damaging wind, although the models aren’t showing the strength of these storms very well, keep in mind the wind threat is very high, and with the motion of these storms, it indicates that there will be directional shear, which is conducive to tornadoes.*The tornado threat isn’t as high as the damaging wind threat* Don’t be alarmed, but stay vigilant. I’ll keep you posted!

-Darius Mack

Snow Update

3:54PM January 5, 2017

The snow has arrived and it continues to snow lightly. Radar is showing the snow filtering in from the west. The darker contours indicate periods of heavier snow, that’s something to watch as the evening wears on. A general 1″-3″ is expected.

bwg_None_anim (1).gif

 

Today there were already school closings and for some that went, early dismissals.

With that being said. Lets see how the roads are:

current_i75newt

I-75 Newtown Pike

current_i64ccwb

Clark County I-64  West Bound

current_i75manw

I-75 Man O’ War

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

The school watch Meter still stands at an 8 out of 11 for Friday!

school-watch-meter-friday

Tracking Snow Chances

11:30AM  January 4,2017

Happy New Year! Winter has arrived and despite Kentucky weather’s Spring-like escapades, we’re always reminded that Winter is still upon us. For the last two days its been dreary and in the 60s. Today, bare cold and frigid weather is filtering into the region. But lets be hopeful, if you feel like you’re missing out on the snow this season, there’s a good chance we get our first accumulating snowfall later this week, in fact, soon!

 

Tomorrow, I’m tracking a snowmaker that will usher through in waves. The track and chances of this snow system has been consistent over the past couple of days, it’s not going to be a shutdown snow, but it is just enough snow to be noticed. As you can see from the NAM run, the snow moves in as early as Thursday morning. However, keep in mind that the snow must tackle some of the dry air we have place now. So, it’s likely we’ll start off with just a couple of flakes falling from the sky. Don’t anticipate an immediate “snow down” once the first flakes arrive. I’ll say around 10am-the afternoon and evening, we’ll see some moderate and even heavier bands of snow that could put down a couple of inches in some spots.

nam-model-runs

NAM MODEL RUNS-PIVOTALWEATHER

 

In terms of accumulation, NAM is putting the I-64 corridor around the 1”-3” for accumulating snow. *NOTE This goes from Thursday through Friday morning.

snowfall-accumulation-fri

NAM SNOWFALL -PIVOTALWEATHER

 

Here’s my initial thoughts on the expected snowfall…

snow-potential

So kids, Snow day tomorrow? Not likely, I think there’s a better chance for school closings Friday.

School watch meter Thursday.jpg school-watch-meter-friday

I’ll keep you posted! 😉

 

Tracking Pre-Dawn Storms

10:45pm 06/22/16 Good evening! It’s been a while since I’ve updated this blog, but don’t worry, i have not forgotten. Today was an important day for me because I turned 19. Also, I want to just say thanks to all of my friends and family that sent me the best wishes.

Now to get to the real stuff…

There is a threat for severe weather late tonight and super early tomorrow morning, primarily within the morning hours between 4-7 am. Which means that if you enjoy sleeping, well, you’re just going to have sleeping troubles. The HRRR suggests a heavy line of storms tracking from north to south. There’s no doubt that damaging winds will be a great likelihood.

HRRR-storms-run

Your Threat Index shows the greatest threats would be lightning, damaging wind, and hail. The lowest threat is the Tornado threat, However, that’s something to continue to watch as models are hinting that there could be enough spin energy to produce isolated tornadoes.

Threat Index Thursday

I’ll keep you posted!

  • Darius Mack  Follow @dariusmack_wx on twitter

Thursday School Watch Meter

8:15pm 03/2

I’m going to be short and to the point since I have mid-terms this week. Just when you think we are done with snow, it seems that it always makes it’s special and maybe “surprising” appearances, I know this morning’s flurries and chilly conditions reminds us that winter is still here.

Tomorrow, I’m talking possible rain and mixing, something that is sort of catching my attention.

Here’s the timing 11pm-1am is when I suspect rain and snow to arrive, and it will continue through Thursday afternoon. Temps today have hovered around the mid to upper 30s and it might not take long for pavement temps to reach the freezing mark which is why I think it’s possible for some accumulating snow tomorrow.

HiResNam

HiResNam 4km, WxBell

 

 

The WxBell HiResNam is showing a system pivoting across the west and will swing rain and snow from the southwest to northern zones. Keep in mind, temperatures will be critical on who gets what. With that being said, I’m not saying this is going to be a MAJOR issue, nor am I saying it’s not going to have any impact. It’s something the be aware of, especially for school systems when students are headed to the buses tomorrow morning. Also, keep in mind that models have a hard time picking out which areas will see temps at our below freezing, I’m convinced that tonight we could see snow, especially in valley areas. but I’m thinking more in the form of light flakes because there will be some drier air to tackle with. By 7am tomorrow morning much of central and northern Kentucky could be seeing rain and possibly soggy wet snow flakes. There is BUST potential with this, because like I said temperatures will be key on who gets what.

The School Watch Meter is at a  4/11 and here’s why:

           I do believe there is potential for a school delay tomorrow morning, rain and snow leads to messy road conditions. However, my confidence on this forecast is at 60%.

          Yes, I think we’ll see snow, I don’t honestly don’t think it will be enough snow to close school

          There is definitely freeze potential, anything that falls could freeze and stick on the pavement

           There is a possibility for a school delay but it is not guaranteed

School watch meter Thursday

 

This is what I’m sticking with, do your homework! If there actually happens to be a school closing. better safe than sorry!

 

 

Late Tracking

1:05a 02/16

I’m watching the radar and it looks that most of the area is now getting some full blown snow.

bwg_None_anim

With that being said, I have changed my snow thoughts on this, this is my final snowcast for this event.

snow thoughts

How are the roads in Scott County?

I75 NB @ MP 127

Scott County I-75 NB

 

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75 Newtown Pike

How are the roads across the region?

I-64 WB @ MP 97

Clark I-64 West Bound

I-75 @ Man O War Blvd

I-75 Man O’ War

 

 

 

You can check the latest road conditions at 511.ky.gov

School Watch Meter still stands at a 6/11..

School Watch Meter Tuesday

 

I’m off to bed, you should be in bed too 😉

Changing Weather, and the School Watch Meter

6:36P 02/15

How about that? A snow storm on your valentine’s day Sunday, rain today, and then wait… Yes, I’m talking yet more snow for parts of the bluegrass, now what does that exactly mean? I understand temps hit above the freezing mark, but road temps are taking time to match that. Here is the current pavement temp summary across the state… Notice some spots, especially in northern and central Kentucky, the road temps are either at or near the freezing mark.

pavement temp summary

KYTC Pavement Temperature Summary

 

I think that the temps we are seeing now, are as high as we are going to get, tonight cooler air swings in, and with any precipitation, we’ll likely see the switch over from rain to snow. One particular model (HRRR) updates every hour, showing that the rain holds steady for just a short while.. It looks likely that a band of heavy snow develops across central and eastern Kentucky

HRRR-model-run

HRRR 1-HOUR PRECIP TYPES , WXBell

 

 

 

Speaking of which, look at the snow output this model is showing Tuesday morning. Now I’m not quick to judge, however 8 inches I think is a bit extreme…

HRRR snow totoals

HRRR Snowfall, WxBell

 

But.. the Euro, is not soo bullish. Showing 1”-4” range by Tuesday morning.

Euro snow totals

ECMWF Total Snowfall, WxBell

 

Hi Res NAM  shifts the area of heavier amounts more towards the east..

HiRes Nam snow cast

Hi-Res NAM Snow Totals, WxBell

 

 

With that being said, here is what I’m thinking soo far in terms of snow totals…

Snow Thoughts Tuesday.jpg

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the area through 7 am tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

I’m giving a 6 out of 11 on the School Watch meter, which gives Scott county students a MODERATE- HIGH chance for a Snowday tomorrow, and here is why.

School Watch Meter Tuesday.jpg

          Though its forecasted for a heavy band of snow, I believe there is Bust potential, meaning that we may not get as much snow as the models are predicting, this is a fairly critical factor .

          Even if we don’t get as much snow as forecasted, roads will still deteoriate, the rain and left over snow will create a slush, making travel treacherous by tomorrow morning. Any snow added to that will make conditions worse

      This will happen overnight and during the early morning hour tomorrow.

Check back with me later tonight to see if the School Watch meter goes up or down.